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Comment by learn_ml

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Reddit commenter on priors and Bayes factors in the Rootclaim COVID-19 origins debate
Both judges make fundamental mistakes in their analysis. Their calculations about the priors are wrong. Hilarious tbh. They give a Bayes factor of 1000-10000 to Huanan Market. Such a huge update on data controlled by Chinese authorities and analysed by motivated researchers tells more about the state of their innumeracy than anything else.
AI Verified (Feb 21, 2024)
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learn_ml, comment on “Peter Miller has won his debate with Rootclaim,” Reddit r/slatestarcodex, 2024.
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AI Verified The quote is authentic: the Reddit comment page at the provided URL shows user learn_ml posting this exact text, and Reddit’s JSON for comment id krf4ckd lists author "learn_ml" with a body matching the quote verbatim. The JSON also gives created_utc 1708500913, which corresponds to 2024-02-21 UTC by calculation, so the stored author, date, content, and source URL are consistent. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1au49wh/comment/krf4ckd/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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