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Comment by Andrew T. Levin

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Economist, Professor at Dartmouth College and NBER Research Associate
This paper uses Bayesian methods in conjunction with spatiotemporal and zoonotic data to evaluate the odds ratio for two hypotheses regarding the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, namely, an accidental laboratory leak of a chimera virus or the transmission of a natural virus from an infected wildlife mammal.
AI Verified (Jan 2025)
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NBER Working Paper 33428
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Relevant: the quote is directly about using Bayesian methods to adjudicate between the two COVID-19 origin hypotheses, and the source page presents that Bayesian analysis as the paper’s framework for evaluating the question. That makes support for the statement substantially more likely than opposition or abstention. ([nber.org](https://www.nber.org/papers/w33428)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 3mo ago
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AI Verified The quote says the paper "uses Bayesian methods" to evaluate the two COVID-origin hypotheses, and the source abstract goes on to present an overall Bayes factor and a strong bottom-line conclusion. That strongly implies the author views Bayesian analysis as an appropriate framework for settling the question, even if he does not explicitly say it is the only right framework. ([nber.org](https://www.nber.org/papers/w33428)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 3mo ago

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AI Verified Verified. The NBER landing page for Working Paper 33428 lists Andrew T. Levin as the sole author, gives the issue date as January 2025, and contains the quoted sentence verbatim in the abstract; the linked PDF repeats the same wording on page 1 under "ABSTRACT." ([nber.org](https://www.nber.org/papers/w33428)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 3mo ago
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