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Comment by Andrew T. Levin

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Economist, Professor at Dartmouth College and NBER Research Associate
These four conditional Bayes factors are estimated as 2.3:1, 20:1, 27:1, and 12:1, respectively, and hence the overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak. This conclusion is robust to alternative specifications of the detailed statistical analysis.
AI Verified (Jan 2025)
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NBER Working Paper 33428
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Relevant: the source is explicitly a Bayesian assessment of COVID-19 origins, and nearby text says it uses Bayesian methods to compare the competing origin hypotheses and contrasts that approach with classical null-hypothesis testing. The quoted passage then reports the Bayes-factor result as overwhelming and robust evidence, so it is part of the author's Bayesian case for settling the origins question. That makes support for Bayesian analysis as the framework substantially more likely. ([nber.org](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w33428/w33428.pdf)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Verified The source page says the paper "uses Bayesian methods ... to evaluate the odds ratio" between the two COVID-origin hypotheses, and the quote says the Bayes factors produce "overwhelming evidence" with a conclusion that is "robust." That strongly implies the author views Bayesian analysis as an appropriate framework for resolving this origins question, even though he does not literally say it is "the right framework." · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago

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AI Verified The quote is authentic: it appears verbatim on the official NBER page for Working Paper 33428 and in the paper PDF/abstract, both attributed to Andrew T. Levin. The source URL contains the quoted sentences, and the NBER page lists the issue date as January 2025, matching the submitted attribution and date. ([nber.org](https://www.nber.org/papers/w33428)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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