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Comment by Andrew T. Levin

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Economist, Professor at Dartmouth College and NBER Research Associate
Now, the nice thing about Bayesian analysis, many of you know this is, it's good for evaluating two competing hypotheses because you start with priors, which may be based on intuition, or it may be based on prior evidence that you have. And then you update those priors with specific sources of evidence and you end up with a posterior.
AI Verified source (Jul 24, 2024)
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Policy proposals and claims
Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The quote is directly on the statement’s core issue: in the source context, the speaker frames the COVID-19 origins question as a choice between lab leak and zoonotic spillover, explains Bayesian updating as the method for comparing those competing hypotheses, and presents that method as the approach the paper/workshop should use. That makes a clear stance on the complete statement determinable. ([hoover.org](https://www.hoover.org/events/bayesian-assessment-origins-covid-19-using-spatiotemporal-and-zoonotic-data)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 42min ago
AI Verified Relevant: in source context, the speaker is explicitly discussing how to evaluate the two COVID-origin hypotheses (lab leak vs. zoonotic spillover), says Bayesian analysis is good for comparing competing hypotheses, and then states that if those two hypotheses are to be taken seriously, Bayesian analysis is "the way to go." That makes a determinate supportive stance on the complete statement substantially more likely. ([hoover.org](https://www.hoover.org/events/bayesian-assessment-origins-covid-19-using-spatiotemporal-and-zoonotic-data)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Verified The quote is supportive, not neutral: he says Bayesian analysis is “good for evaluating two competing hypotheses,” and in the source context he adds that for the COVID-origins hypotheses, “Bayesian analysis is the way to go,” implying it is the proper framework for resolving the question. ([hoover.org](https://www.hoover.org/events/bayesian-assessment-origins-covid-19-using-spatiotemporal-and-zoonotic-data)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 41min ago
AI Verified The quote says Bayesian analysis is "good for evaluating two competing hypotheses," and the source context makes the stance explicit: "if we really want to take seriously two competing hypotheses, then Bayesian analysis is the way to go." That strongly supports the claim that it is the right framework for deciding between COVID-origin hypotheses. ([hoover.org](https://www.hoover.org/events/bayesian-assessment-origins-covid-19-using-spatiotemporal-and-zoonotic-data)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago

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AI Verified The quote is authentic. The Hoover Institution event page at the supplied URL includes a transcript in which “Andrew Levin” says this wording verbatim: “Now, the nice thing about Bayesian analysis, many of you know this is, it's good for evaluating two competing hypotheses because you start with priors ... And then you update those priors with specific sources of evidence and you end up with a posterior.” The same page is dated Wednesday, July 24, 2024, so the stored date and source match. The author attribution is also consistent: Hoover lists him as Andrew Levin, while Dartmouth/NBER sources use the fuller form Andrew T./Andrew Theo Levin for the same Dartmouth economist. ([hoover.org](https://www.hoover.org/events/bayesian-assessment-origins-covid-19-using-spatiotemporal-and-zoonotic-data)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 43min ago
AI Verified Verified: the official Hoover Institution event transcript page contains the quote verbatim at lines 511-512, within Andrew Levin's remarks, and the page identifies the event as Wednesday, July 24, 2024. Independent academic author records corroborate that this speaker's full name is Andrew T. Levin (Andrew Theo Levin), so the stored author, date, content, and source URL are consistent. ([hoover.org](https://www.hoover.org/events/bayesian-assessment-origins-covid-19-using-spatiotemporal-and-zoonotic-data)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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