We can't find the internet
Attempting to reconnect
Something went wrong!
Hang in there while we get back on track
Comment by Michael Weissman
Condensed-matter physicist, emeritus professor at the University of Illinois, who argues proximity ascertainment bias undermines the Huanan clustering inference.
We’ve seen that calculating Bayesian odds involves both picking priors and calculating likelihood ratios.AI Verified source (Aug 31, 2023)
2h ago
Policy proposals and claims
votes For
Statement relation comments
AI Verified
Relevant: in the source, Weissman explicitly presents COVID-origins evaluation as "robust Bayesian analysis," and this quote is part of his methodological discussion of how Bayesian odds are computed via priors and likelihood ratios. That makes a pro-Bayesian-framework stance on the complete statement substantially more likely. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability))
·
YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 2h ago
AI Verified
The quote is directly about Bayesian odds within the source’s COVID-origins analysis, and the article explicitly frames itself as “A robust Bayesian look at Covid origins” and says “Our method will be robust Bayesian analysis” for evaluating SARS‑CoV‑2 origins. In that context, this methodological remark is part of the author’s case for using Bayesian analysis on the origins question, so a pro-Bayesian stance on the complete statement is substantially more likely. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability))
·
YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 2h ago
Vote answer comments
AI Verified
The quote alone is descriptive, but the article’s context clearly endorses Bayesian reasoning for this issue: the author says "Our method will be robust Bayesian analysis," says he will "objectively calculate the odds" of Covid origins, and calls Bayes’ theorem "the standard logical procedure" for doing so. So the author is most likely supportive of Bayesian analysis as the appropriate framework here, even if he does not claim it is the only possible method. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability))
·
YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 2h ago
AI Verified
The quote alone is procedural, but the article’s context makes the stance supportive: Weissman says "Our method will be robust Bayesian analysis" and calls Bayes’ theorem "the standard logical procedure" for calculating the odds between COVID-origin hypotheses. That strongly implies he sees Bayesian analysis as the appropriate framework for settling this question, even if he does not say it is the only possible framework. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability))
·
YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 2h ago
Quote authenticity verification history
Report thisQuote authenticity comments
AI Verified
Verified: the fetchable Substack page "An Inconvenient Probability" is authored by Michael Weissman and dated Aug 31, 2023, and it contains the quote verbatim in Appendix 2: “We’ve seen that calculating Bayesian odds involves both picking priors and calculating likelihood ratios.” The stored author, date, content, and source URL match the source. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability))
·
YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 2h ago
AI Verified
Verified directly at the source URL: the exact sentence appears in the Substack post "An Inconvenient Probability"; the page is bylined "Michael Weissman" and dated Aug 31, 2023. Illinois identifies the same author as Michael B Weissman, so the stored attribution, date, source URL, and quote text are consistent. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability))
·
YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 2h ago
replying to Michael Weissman