Scott Alexander on Bayesian analysis is the right framewor…

Scott Alexander

Author and psychiatrist

Either way, you’re accepting that a 1-in-10,000 freak coincidence happened. Isn’t it more likely you’ve bungled your analysis?

AI Verified source (Mar 28, 2024)

3mo ago

Policy proposals and claims

Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question

votes Against

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AI Verified In context, this line appears in the article’s discussion of Bayes factors in the COVID-origins debate, specifically arguing that if both sides generate extreme 1-in-10,000 evidence, that likely indicates a bungled probabilistic model rather than a clean resolution. That is directly about using Bayesian analysis to settle the COVID-19 origins question, and it provides enough methodological signal that a stance on the complete statement is determinable. ([astralcodexten.com](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 3mo ago

AI Verified In context, this quote is part of the article’s discussion of Bayesian math in the COVID-origins debate: it argues that getting extreme Bayes-factor-style evidence on both sides is a sign the analysis may be mis-specified or error-prone. That is directly about whether Bayesian analysis is an appropriate framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question, and it makes a skeptical stance on that complete statement substantially more likely. ([astralcodexten.com](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 3mo ago

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AI Verified The quote treats extreme Bayes factors on both sides as evidence the model is probably wrong — "you've bungled your analysis" — and the article says full Bayesian reasoning on fuzzy real-world problems is too hard and that Rootclaim-style analysis "doesn't work." That implies opposition to Bayesian analysis as the practical way to settle COVID origins. ([astralcodexten.com](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 3mo ago

AI Verified Against. The quote treats competing Bayes factors as a sign the analysis is probably wrong — "more likely you’ve bungled your analysis" — and the article’s context says Scott supports Bayes in principle but not "full Bayesian reasoning on fuzzy real-world problems," concluding Rootclaim-style explicit Bayesian analysis on COVID origins "doesn’t work." ([astralcodexten.com](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 3mo ago

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AI Verified The supplied URL is fetchable and opens to an Astral Codex Ten post titled "Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate," credited to Scott Alexander and dated Mar 28, 2024 (lines 7, 13-15). The exact quoted sentence appears verbatim at lines 324-331, so the quote is authentic and correctly attributed. ([astralcodexten.com](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 3mo ago

AI Verified Verified: the exact quote appears verbatim in Scott Alexander’s Astral Codex Ten post “Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate,” and the page credits Scott Alexander as the author and dates it March 28, 2024. The quote appears in the article’s “The Math: Double Coincidences” section on the supplied URL. ([astralcodexten.com](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 3mo ago

replying to Scott Alexander