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Comment by Jonathan

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Rootclaim blog author
Finally, we’ll try to quantify the conditional probability of an HSM spillover and early cluster, assuming zoonosis as the origin and Wuhan as the location, given this data:
AI Verified source (Apr 1, 2024)
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Relevant. In source context, the author explicitly treats the COVID-origins question as one to be resolved by Bayes factors and conditional probabilities, and this quote is the setup for quantifying one of those conditional probabilities. That makes the author’s stance on the full statement substantially determinable, even though the quote itself is shorthand. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/covid-origins-debate-response-to-scott-alexander/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
AI Verified Relevant: the source explicitly frames COVID-origins evidence in Bayesian terms—evaluating Bayes factors as ratios of conditional probabilities—and says this is "the best way to approach this question." The quoted line is a concrete step in that method, quantifying a conditional probability for the zoonosis hypothesis, so it provides enough signal that the author’s stance on the complete statement is determinable. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/covid-origins-debate-response-to-scott-alexander/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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AI Verified The quote itself is Bayes-style reasoning—trying to "quantify the conditional probability" of evidence under a hypothesis—and the source context explicitly says probabilistic inference is "the best way to reach a decision" and that the analysis aims to estimate "Bayes factors." That strongly indicates the author supports Bayesian analysis as the proper framework for resolving COVID origins. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
AI Verified The quote itself shows the author applying a Bayesian-style method—“quantify the conditional probability...” — and the article’s surrounding context says the “strength of evidence is measured by the ratio of the conditional probabilities,” that “our goal in a probabilistic analysis is to estimate Bayes factors,” and that this is “the best way to approach this question.” That strongly implies the author supports Bayesian/probabilistic analysis as the right framework for resolving the COVID-origins dispute. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/covid-origins-debate-response-to-scott-alexander/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago

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AI Verified The sentence appears verbatim in the Rootclaim post at the provided URL, and that same page shows the byline “Jonathan” and date “April 1, 2024,” so the stored quote, author, date, and source URL all match. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/covid-origins-debate-response-to-scott-alexander/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
AI Verified The exact sentence appears verbatim on the cited Rootclaim Blog page, and that page attributes the post to Jonathan and dates it April 1, 2024. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/covid-origins-debate-response-to-scott-alexander/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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