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Comment by BW

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Statistical Modeling blog commenter on Bayesian analysis and COVID-19 origins
In response, co-author Washburne resorts to special pleading about maximum fragment size being a relevant statistic only for engineered viruses. But at the same time, this special pleading was not used to address that there is that tiny fragment that an engineer would not choose. This is purely motivated reasoning and data mining.
AI Verified (Feb 5, 2025)
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BW, comment on Andrew Gelman, "What do I think of this Bayesian analysis of the origins of covid?", Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, February 5, 2025.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Relevant: in this source context, BW is not just discussing a nearby virology detail; they are attacking a component of the COVID-origins Bayesian argument as "motivated reasoning and data mining," and elsewhere on the same page explicitly frame this as criticism of "how Weissman applies Bayesian reasoning" by overweighting lab-leak-favoring considerations. That makes opposition to Bayesian analysis as the right framework here substantially more likely. ([statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/03/bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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AI Verified Against: BW describes the argument as "special pleading," "purely motivated reasoning," and "data mining." In the same thread he says this is "how Weissman applies Bayesian reasoning," with lab-leak-favoring narratives given high weight and natural-origin evidence low weight. That strongly implies opposition to the idea that Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-origins question, though the evidence is about this style of Bayesian analysis rather than an explicit rejection of every possible Bayesian approach. ([statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/03/bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago

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AI Verified The source URL is fetchable, and lines 277-280 show a comment posted by "BW" on February 5, 2025; the quoted text appears there verbatim, so the quote is authentic as attributed to that on-page commenter name. ([statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/03/bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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