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Comment by Michael Balter
Science journalist and author writing on COVID-19 origins and science policy
What we do have, however, is Bayes’ powerful theorem, an established method for calculating the odds of any particular outcome by factoring in the events that are credibly related to that outcome. It is widely used in science—although apparently many scientists don’t know how to use it and leave that to the statisticians on their research teams—and very well suited to figuring out questions such as the likelihood of any particular hypothesis.AI Verified (Sep 22, 2023)
1h ago
Policy proposals and claims
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Statement relation comments
AI Verified
Relevant. In context, the piece is explicitly about applying Bayesian analysis to the COVID-19 origins question, and the quote says Bayes' theorem is an established method "very well suited" to assessing the likelihood of competing hypotheses. The surrounding article also presents a Bayes analysis of COVID origins as especially convincing and criticizes non-Bayesian reasoning, so the author's stance on the complete statement is determinable. ([michaelbalter.substack.com](https://michaelbalter.substack.com/p/dont-bet-money-on-the-market-spillover))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
Vote answer comments
AI Verified
The author is supportive: he describes Bayes’ theorem as a "powerful," "established" method, "widely used in science," and "very well suited" to assessing the likelihood of hypotheses, and the article applies that framework to COVID origins specifically. The source context also says a "legitimate Bayesian analysis" should "stick to the facts," implying this is the proper framework for weighing the question, even if particular analyses remain open to revision with new data. ([michaelbalter.substack.com](https://michaelbalter.substack.com/p/dont-bet-money-on-the-market-spillover))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
Quote authenticity verification history
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AI Verified
The source URL is fetchable, the article byline identifies Michael Balter, the page date is Sep 22, 2023, and line 47 contains the submitted text verbatim. The quote is authentic and correctly attributed, and the stored author, date, content, and source URL are consistent with the source. ([michaelbalter.substack.com](https://michaelbalter.substack.com/p/dont-bet-money-on-the-market-spillover))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
replying to Michael Balter