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Comment by sards3
Reddit commenter on priors and COVID-19 origins
The fundamental question is this: There is a lab that does gain of function research on novel bat coronaviruses. Then a novel bat coronavirus emerges in close proximity to the lab. What is your prior that the virus came from the lab? I think it should be pretty high (over 70%). In light of such a high prior, there would need to be extremely strong evidence of a zoonotic origin to arrive at the most popular answer in this survey (greater than 95% chance of zoonotic origin).AI Verified (Feb 3, 2024)
1h ago
Policy proposals and claims
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AI Verified
Relevant: the quote directly treats the COVID-19 origins question as a Bayesian-updating problem, centered on priors and how much evidence would be needed to overcome them. In the same thread, the author also defends using that framing, so a determinate stance on the statement is substantially more likely than not. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1ahdisp/most_experts_believe_covid19_was_probably_not_a/koph4ue/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
Vote answer comments
AI Verified
The quote strongly implies support: the author says "The fundamental question is this" and then frames the issue in explicitly Bayesian terms of a "prior" and how much evidence would be needed to update it, treating that as the proper way to judge COVID origins. It does not say "right framework" verbatim, but that inference is strong from the wording. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1ahdisp/most_experts_believe_covid19_was_probably_not_a/koph4ue/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
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AI Verified
Verified: the Reddit source URL redirects to the comment page for comment ID koph4ue, where user "sards3" is shown as the author and the submitted passage appears verbatim at the start of the comment. Reddit’s JSON endpoint for the same comment also lists author "sards3", id "koph4ue", and created_utc 1706943264, which corresponds to 2024-02-03 UTC, consistent with the stored Feb. 3, 2024 date. The submitted quote is an exact excerpt from a longer comment. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1ahdisp/most_experts_believe_covid19_was_probably_not_a/koph4ue/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
replying to sards3