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Comment by g_candlesworth

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Reddit commenter on Bayesian priors and the Rootclaim COVID-19 origins debate
I read through their response until "HSM Rebuttal: Simple Version" item 3, at which I became utterly flummoxed and thought I'd turn here to see if anyone else has a better grasp of what they are trying to express [...] Okay... I might also have a problem with the argumentation. Isn't this a classic Bayesian blunder, a failure to update priors? Aren't they just saying that "independent seafood-market clusters of Covid cases are vanishingly unlikely," but of course, after the FIRST such case, that reality has to be plugged into the equation?
AI Verified (2024)
Source:
g_candlesworth, comment on “Rootclaim responds to Scott's review of their debate,” Reddit r/slatestarcodex, 2024.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The quote is directly about how a COVID-origins argument should treat priors and updating, calling Rootclaim’s reasoning a possible “Bayesian blunder.” In source context, the author is criticizing a specific methodological step in the COVID-19 origins debate, which makes a stance on Bayesian analysis as the appropriate framework substantially more likely than not, even though the quote does not explicitly endorse or reject the full statement. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1bwec70)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Unverifiable The author criticizes Rootclaim for a "classic Bayesian blunder" and a "failure to update priors," which implies Bayesian reasoning is a relevant standard for evaluating that argument, but the comment does not clearly endorse or reject Bayesian analysis as the overall right framework for settling COVID origins. It is a narrow criticism of Rootclaim’s use of Bayes, not a broad stance on the full statement. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1bwec70/rootclaim_responds_to_scotts_review_of_their/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago

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AI Verified Authentic. The Reddit thread URL is fetchable, and the specific comment permalink shows a comment by g_candlesworth containing the quoted opening and closing passages; the omitted middle material matches the [...] gap, so this is a faithful excerpt rather than a fabrication. Reddit’s JSON for that comment also identifies the author as "g_candlesworth" and contains the same wording. The stored author, source URL, and year 2024 are consistent with the fetchable source. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1bwec70/comment/ky746ju/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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