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Comment by AMagicalKittyCat
Reddit commenter on Bayesian reasoning and the Rootclaim COVID-19 origins debate
The debate really helped cement in to me that while the idea of Bayesian reasoning is great, the actual implementation is the most important part and it falls to the same reasoning issue as "that's just a gut feeling" most of the time. [...] I could just as easily use Bayesian reasoning to show that the Covid leak didn't happen by hyperfocusing on the incredibly low chance that a lab leak would occur at a wet market and ignoring the people who say "but isn't it rare it happened near a lab?"AI Verified (Jul 21, 2025)
1h ago
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votes Against
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AI Verified
Relevant: in this COVID-origins debate thread, the author explicitly argues that Bayesian reasoning can be manipulated by choosing selective inputs and can be used to argue either that the lab leak happened or that it did not. In context, that strongly signals a determinate stance on whether Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1m5pegs/winner_gets_100k_destiny_meets_best_covid_debater/n4e8hya/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
Vote answer comments
AI Verified
The author is skeptical that Bayesian analysis can settle this question: they say that although “the idea of Bayesian reasoning is great,” in practice it often collapses into something like “just a gut feeling,” and that they could “just as easily use Bayesian reasoning” to argue the opposite conclusion about COVID origins. That strongly implies opposition to Bayesian analysis being the right framework for settling the issue.
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
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AI Verified
Verified. The submitted Reddit URL redirects to the comment’s canonical page, and both the Reddit page and the comment JSON show a comment by AMagicalKittyCat containing the quoted opening sentence and the later sentence about using Bayesian reasoning to argue the Covid leak did not happen; the [...] omission only skips intervening text, not altering the quoted wording. The JSON also shows comment id n4e8hya, author "AMagicalKittyCat," and created_utc 1753125851, consistent with the submitted date of July 21, 2025 UTC. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1m5pegs/winner_gets_100k_destiny_meets_best_covid_debater/n4e8hya/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
replying to AMagicalKittyCat