Comment by Ll4v3s

Reddit commenter on Bayesian reasoning and COVID-19 origins debate methods
But the problems of selectively paying attention to the evidence you want to see isn't a unique problem of bayesian reasoning. That's possible for literally any style of putatively rational thinking. All else equal, I would think the explicit nature of the faulty Bayesian's thought process would highlight the flawed reasoning rather than hiding it. Even if you don't do explicit credence calculations (which may often be impractical), there are super useful reasoning heuristics that come from bayesian reasoning.
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AI Verified The quote is relevant. In the source thread, it is a direct reply to a comment saying the COVID-origins debate pushed the commenter away from Bayesian reasoning; this quote answers that by defending Bayesian reasoning as useful, more explicit, and not uniquely vulnerable to cherry-picking. That makes a pro-Bayesian stance on the framework question substantially more likely, even though it does not restate the full statement verbatim. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1m5pegs)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Verified The author is defending Bayesian reasoning in the COVID-origins discussion, not rejecting it: they say selective evidence is "not a unique problem of bayesian reasoning," that Bayes can make flaws more explicit, and that Bayesian heuristics are "super useful." That strongly implies support for Bayesian analysis as an appropriate framework here, even though they note explicit credence calculations may be impractical and do not explicitly say it is the only framework. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1m5pegs/winner_gets_100k_destiny_meets_best_covid_debater/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago

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AI Verified The Reddit thread and the direct comment permalink both contain this exact passage under user Ll4v3s. The submitted text is a verbatim contiguous excerpt of the comment; the source continues with one additional sentence after the excerpt. Reddit shows the post/comment as “1y ago,” which is consistent with a 2025 year-only date as of July 7, 2026. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1m5pegs/winner_gets_100k_destiny_meets_best_covid_debater/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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