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Comment by crashfrog02
Reddit commenter on priors and COVID-19 origins
In Atlanta GA there's a CDC lab that studies enteric diseases, like Salmonella and E coli. They host the country's largest collection of cultures of such pathogens. Eight miles away, there's a diner with a "C" rating from the DeKalb County Department of Health that's the epicenter of ten cases of food poisoning. What is your prior that the pathogen leaked from the CDC Enteric Diseases Group?AI Verified (Feb 6, 2024)
1h ago
Policy proposals and claims
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AI Verified
The quote directly debates what prior to assign in the COVID lab-leak vs. natural-origin question and, in context, is a reply to another commenter’s explicit prior-based argument. That makes the author’s stance on using Bayesian-style prior reasoning for this question substantially inferable, even though the quote does not explicitly say Bayes is the uniquely 'right framework.' ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1ahdisp/comment/kp5bety/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
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AI Verified
The quote argues about the COVID-origin debate in explicitly Bayesian terms—repeatedly asking what the "prior" should be and using an analogy to challenge a high lab-leak prior. That strongly implies the author sees Bayesian-style reasoning as the proper framework for evaluating the question, even though he does not explicitly endorse formal Bayes by name. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1ahdisp/comment/kp5bety/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
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AI Verified
Verified: the supplied Reddit permalink contains a comment by `crashfrog02` (`id: kp5bety`) whose body includes the quoted text verbatim, aside from an omitted opening quoted line ('There is a lab that does gain of function research on novel bat coronaviruses.'). The JSON version of the same permalink lists `author: "crashfrog02"` and `created_utc: 1707202947`, which corresponds to 2024-02-06 UTC, so the stored author, date, and source URL are consistent. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1ahdisp/comment/kp5bety/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
replying to crashfrog02