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Comment by fubo
Reddit commenter on evidence and COVID-19 origins arguments
If we look all over the kitchen for the good pie tin, and we do not find it, that *is* evidence that it's not in the kitchen. (Perhaps we took it to a friend's house when we brought a pie to a party, and it hasn't been returned.) Absence of evidence *is* evidence of absence, *if* presence would create evidence.AI Verified (Jan 3, 2024)
1h ago
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AI Verified
In context, the quote is a direct reply to an argument about whether failing to find earlier November COVID cases should count against that possibility in the origins debate; the author explicitly argues that missing expected evidence is itself evidence, using the kitchen/pie-tin analogy. That is squarely about how evidence should update beliefs in the COVID-19 origins question, so it is on-topic and gives a determinate stance signal about the appropriateness of a Bayesian-style evidential framework. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/18vq08f/comment/kg4ygsq/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
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AI Verified
In context, he is defending a COVID-origins argument that missing earlier cases counts against that hypothesis, saying "Absence of evidence is evidence of absence, if presence would create evidence." That strongly implies support for a Bayesian-style evidence-updating framework for this question, even though he does not mention Bayes by name. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/18vq08f/comment/kg4ygsq/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
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AI Verified
The exact wording appears in the Reddit comment at the supplied URL, and the comment is attributed there to user "fubo". Reddit’s JSON for that comment shows `author: "fubo"`, `edited: false`, and `created_utc: 1704296254`, consistent with January 3, 2024 UTC, so the stored author, date, and quote text are supported by the source. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/18vq08f/comment/kg4ygsq/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
replying to fubo