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Comment by Peter Miller

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COVID-19 origins researcher and Rootclaim debate participant
Weissman prefers a Bayesian approach, where you average over counterfactual realities, where one detail could have been different. [...] This process of averaging over different possibilities can go on forever, and no one agrees on which counterfactual scenarios to average over.
AI Verified (Apr 6, 2026)
Source:
Peter Miller, "Contra Weissman on two spillovers," Medium, April 6, 2026.
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Policy proposals and claims
Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The quote is directly about the use of a Bayesian method in the COVID-19 origins debate: in the surrounding passage, Miller says Weissman "prefers a Bayesian approach" and then criticizes that approach as an open-ended averaging over counterfactuals with no agreed rule for which scenarios to include. That makes the author’s stance on whether Bayesian analysis is the right framework substantially more likely to be oppositional rather than unclear. ([medium.com](https://medium.com/%40tgof137/contra-weissman-on-two-spillovers-c5b5ec3c1cc9)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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AI Verified He is criticizing, not endorsing, a Bayesian framework: he says Weissman’s “Bayesian approach” averages over “counterfactual realities,” that this “can go on forever,” and that “no one agrees on which counterfactual scenarios to average over,” which strongly implies Bayesian analysis is not the right framework for settling COVID-origins questions. ([medium.com](https://medium.com/%40tgof137/contra-weissman-on-two-spillovers-c5b5ec3c1cc9)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago

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AI Verified The quote is authentic. The Medium article at the provided URL, titled "Contra Weissman on two spillovers," is authored by Peter Miller and dated Apr 6, 2026. The exact quoted opening sentence appears there, followed by omitted intervening sentences, and then the exact closing sentence: "This process of averaging over different possibilities can go on forever, and no one agrees on which counterfactual scenarios to average over." The ellipsis is a permissible omission, not a wording change. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
replying to Peter Miller