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Comment by LanchestersLaw

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Reddit commenter on Bayesian reasoning and COVID-19 origins
Yes for fucks sake. Bayesian probability only works when you get the probability from data. Prior probability is sometimes presented as “your idea of the probability” but it only works effectively if that probability was derived from measurements.
AI Verified (Aug 17, 2024)
Source:
LanchestersLaw, comment on "Three Bayesian estimates of COVID origin," Reddit r/slatestarcodex, August 17, 2024.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The quote is relevant. In the Reddit thread, it is a direct reply endorsing a criticism of using Bayesian reasoning for COVID-origin estimates because the priors are not data-derived; that makes a stance against the claim that Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question substantially more likely. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1eu595n/three_bayesian_estimates_of_covid_origin/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Verified Against: the author explicitly agrees (“Yes for fucks sake”) with a preceding criticism of using Bayesian reasoning for COVID origins, then says Bayesian probability “only works when you get the probability from data” and priors work only if “derived from measurements,” implying this is not the right framework for settling the question here. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1eu595n/three_bayesian_estimates_of_covid_origin/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago

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AI Verified The supplied Reddit thread is fetchable. The search result for that URL shows a comment by LanchestersLaw dated Saturday August 17, 2024, and the opened page contains the exact quoted text under that username on the supplied URL (lines 117–122), so the quote is authentic and the stored author, date, and source URL are correct. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1eu595n?utm_source=openai)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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