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Comment by Pseudonymous_Rex

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Reddit commenter on Bayesian reasoning and COVID-19 origins
Valuing one-off events is a near meaningless game anyway. If it only happens once in your life, or more likely never, you cannot clearly assign value to it, for example, as part of a risk portfolio.
AI Verified (Aug 17, 2024)
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Pseudonymous_Rex, comment on "Three Bayesian estimates of COVID origin," Reddit r/slatestarcodex, August 17, 2024.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified In the Reddit thread specifically about "Three Bayesian estimates of COVID origin," the surrounding comments criticize using Bayesian reasoning for rare events with weak data, and this quote adds that assigning values/probabilities to one-off events is "near meaningless." That is directly about the suitability of Bayesian analysis for settling the COVID-origins question, and it makes opposition to the statement substantially more likely. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1eu595n/three_bayesian_estimates_of_covid_origin/limgb6y/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Verified In context, the author is replying in a thread about Bayesian estimates of COVID origin and says that assigning values/probabilities to such one-off events is a "near meaningless game," implying this is not the right framework for resolving the question. The quote is not an explicit full statement about COVID origins, but in context it strongly points against it. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1eu595n/three_bayesian_estimates_of_covid_origin/limgb6y/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago

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AI Verified Verified: the Reddit permalink redirects to the canonical comment URL and the fetched page shows the author as “Pseudonymous_Rex” with the exact submitted two-sentence text in that comment; the search result for the same thread dates it to Saturday, August 17, 2024. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1eu595n/three_bayesian_estimates_of_covid_origin/limgb6y/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
replying to Pseudonymous_Rex