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Comment by swni
Reddit commenter on Bayesian reasoning and COVID-19 origins
It's worth pointing out these are very unequal coincidences. Very roughly ~1% of people in China are in Wuhan. And very roughly ~0.01% of people in Wuhan are in HSM.AI Verified (Aug 17, 2024)
2h ago
Policy proposals and claims
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AI Verified
The quote is directly about weighing COVID-origin evidence with rough base-rate probabilities—comparing how surprising Wuhan vs. HSM would be in the Reddit discussion of 'Three Bayesian estimates of COVID origin.' That is a Bayesian-style argument presented as part of the author’s reasoning on the main issue, so it gives enough signal that the author’s stance on whether Bayesian analysis is an appropriate framework here is substantially more likely than not.
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
Vote answer comments
AI Verified
The quote uses rough probability comparisons—"~1% of people in China are in Wuhan" vs "~0.01% of people in Wuhan are in HSM"—to argue the two origin scenarios are not equally coincidental. That strongly implies support for a Bayesian/probabilistic way of weighing the COVID-origin evidence, even though the quote does not explicitly say Bayes is the sole or definitive framework.
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
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AI Verified
Verified. The Reddit thread at the supplied URL is fetchable and shows a comment by username "swni"; the exact quoted text appears verbatim in that comment at lines 244-246, with the author label at line 239. Search metadata for the same Reddit page gives the date as Saturday, August 17, 2024. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1eu595n))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
replying to swni