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Comment by lurkerer

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Reddit commenter on Bayesian reasoning and COVID-19 origins
Appropriate Bayesian reasoning should understand their posterior is: given the available evidence. Such that more evidence or new evidence may change the estimate severely.
AI Verified (Aug 17, 2024)
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lurkerer, comment on "Three Bayesian estimates of COVID origin," Reddit r/slatestarcodex, August 17, 2024.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The quote is directly about using Bayesian reasoning in the COVID-origin debate; in context it responds to a criticism of Bayesian analysis, says a posterior is conditional on the available evidence and can change with new evidence, and adds that the other commenter is using Bayesian base rates too. That makes the author's stance on the complete statement sufficiently determinable. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1eu595n/three_bayesian_estimates_of_covid_origin/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Verified The quote treats Bayesian reasoning as the proper way to reason here—"Appropriate Bayesian reasoning should understand their posterior is: given the available evidence"—and says the other person's "zoonosis-pilling" is still "applying a base rate." That implies support for Bayesian analysis as the framework for the COVID-origins question, while noting its conclusions are revisable if new evidence arrives. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1eu595n/three_bayesian_estimates_of_covid_origin/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago

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AI Verified The quote is authentic: the Reddit thread’s HTML and JSON both show a comment by "lurkerer" containing the exact submitted wording verbatim, and Reddit’s indexed snippet gives the absolute date as Saturday, August 17, 2024. The stored author, content, date, and source URL are consistent with the fetchable source, so no correction is needed. ([reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1eu595n/three_bayesian_estimates_of_covid_origin/.json)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
replying to lurkerer