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Comment by Jiro

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LessWrong commenter on Bayesian reasoning and uncertainty
This is the same problem you get with insect welfare calculations. Insects suffer X% as much as humans, and whatever X actual humans pick, you conclude that insect suffering is a horrible moral catastrophe.
AI Verified (Jan 2026)
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Jiro, comment on viking_math, "The false confidence theorem and Bayesian reasoning," LessWrong, January 2026.
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AI Verified Verified: the LessWrong page at the supplied URL shows a comment labeled “Jiro” containing the submitted text exactly at lines 295–299. The page is the specified post, dated 10th Jan 2026, which is consistent with the stored month-level date Jan 2026. No reliable evidence suggests a different canonical author, source, or wording. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HjbsjnutKE9xbXBwz/the-false-confidence-theorem-and-bayesian-reasoning)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 21h ago
replying to Jiro