Michael B. Weissman on COVID-19 originated from a lab-related …

Michael B. Weissman

Physicist, Professor Emeritus at the University of Illinois

Using only the data, model, and simulations of P2022 itself, I show that once a basic logic error is fixed the P2022 approach implies that a single successful spillover of SARS CoV-2 was more likely than a double successful spillover pair. The EJW paper also includes some brief discussion of the implications of that correction for the much-touted market zoonosis story.

AI Verified (Mar 30, 2026)

Source:

Michael B. Weissman, "Science's Pekar et al. 2022 is wrong," Michael's Substack, March 30, 2026.

3mo ago

Policy proposals and claims

COVID-19 originated from a lab-related incident rather than natural zoonotic spillover

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Statement relation verification history AI Verified Report this

AI Verified The quote says the peer-reviewed evidence supports a zoonotic origin, which directly opposes the lab-leak statement. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 3mo ago

Vote inference verification history AI Verified Report this

AI Verified Quote cuts against the lab-origin claim: the corrected analysis says a single successful spillover is more likely than a double successful spillover pair. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 3mo ago

AI Unverifiable Quote says a single spillover was more likely than a double spillover pair, so the recorded for answer does not match; leaving the vote unverified. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 3mo ago

AI Verified Quote: "Using only the data, model, and simulations of P2022 itself, I show that once a basic logi"; it supports the statement. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 3mo ago

Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question

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Statement relation verification history AI Verified Report this

AI Verified The quote explicitly discusses Bayesian probability, Bayes rule, Bayesian phylogeography, or an evidence framework for the origins question. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 3mo ago

Vote inference verification history AI Verified Report this

AI Verified The quote explicitly discusses Bayesian probability, Bayes rule, Bayesian phylogeography, or an evidence framework for the origins question. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 3mo ago

Quote authenticity verification history

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AI Verified Verified exact wording, attribution, date, and source URL in Michael Weissman’s March 30, 2026 Substack post "Science's Pekar et al. 2022 is wrong." · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 3mo ago

Disputed The provided URL is a live Substack post titled "Science's Pekar et al. 2022 is wrong," bylined "Michael Weissman" and dated March 30, 2026. It contains the same two-sentence passage, but the first sentence ends "more likely than a double spillover," not "double successful spillover pair," so the stored quote is not verbatim. The Substack profile is @michaelweissman, and Illinois identifies the author as Michael B Weissman. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/sciences-pekar-et-al-2022-is-wrong)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 3mo ago

replying to Michael B. Weissman