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Comment by viking_math

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LessWrong author writing on Bayesian reasoning and uncertainty
So, they do not have any evidence that, across all cases when researchers might try to add an FCS to a virus, they use a “12 nucleotide clean insertion” 1 time out of 10. They simply provide a guess, based on their own lack of knowledge. This is exactly the error described above: For all they actually know, the true frequency of this behavior could be 1/1,000, an error of 100x, or it could be even worse. It is simply not valid to claim strong evidence for no other reason than your own certainty.
AI Verified (Jan 10, 2026)
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viking_math, "The false confidence theorem and Bayesian reasoning," LessWrong, January 10, 2026.
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AI Verified The quote is authentic. The provided LessWrong URL is fetchable and contains this text in the post "The false confidence theorem and Bayesian reasoning" by viking_math, dated 10th Jan 2026; the quoted wording appears exactly across lines 60-61 of the fetched page, with only a paragraph break between "it could be even worse." and "It is simply not valid...". The author profile page also corroborates that viking_math published that post on January 10, 2026. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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