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Comment by Steff

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LessWrong commenter on epistemic and aleatory uncertainty
I don't understand the distinction here: Isn't aleatory variability also uncertainty that arises from our lack of knowledge? In one case we don't know how satellites behave. In another case, we have a better understanding, but we still don't know the minute details that explain their variations.
AI Verified (Apr 2026)
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Steff, comment on "The false confidence theorem and Bayesian reasoning," LessWrong, 2026.
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AI Verified The quote is authentic. On the LessWrong post page, a comment attributed to “Steff” contains the submitted text verbatim. The source URL therefore does contain the quote and attribution. The page shows the comment as “3mo” old when fetched on July 8, 2026, which is consistent with Apr 2026; GreaterWrong mirrors adjacent replies in the same subthread on April 26–27, 2026, corroborating the stored month/year. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HjbsjnutKE9xbXBwz/the-false-confidence-theorem-and-bayesian-reasoning)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
replying to Steff