Eric Stansifer on Bayesian analysis is the right framewor…

Eric Stansifer

Applied mathematician and co-judge of the Rootclaim COVID origins debate

Moreover I am not convinced that this Bayesian calculation is even an appropriate way to estimate the relative posterior probability of Z and LL; it just seemed fair that after criticizing Rootclaim's calculations at length I should make an attempt at it myself. I think the numerical calculation gives an undeserved illusion of certainty.

AI Verified (Dec 18, 2023)

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Eric Stansifer, "Rootclaim covid-19 origins debate: Final decision," Dec. 18, 2023.

2mo ago

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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question

votes Against

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AI Verified The quote directly criticizes using Bayesian calculation to estimate the relative posterior probability in the COVID-19 origins debate, saying it may be inappropriate and gives an illusion of certainty. In the source context, Stansifer is discussing his final decision on the origins question, so this clearly bears on whether Bayesian analysis is the right framework. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17 · 2mo ago

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AI Verified The quote rejects the Bayesian calculation as an appropriate way to estimate the posterior probability of zoonosis vs. lab leak and says it creates an "undeserved illusion of certainty," so the author is opposed to treating Bayesian analysis as the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question. ([ermsta.com](https://ermsta.com/r/covid_decision_20240603.pdf?utm_source=openai)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17 · 2mo ago

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AI Verified The quote matches verbatim in Eric Stansifer’s "Rootclaim covid-19 origins debate: Final decision"; search snippets from the PDF show the exact wording and identify Stansifer as the author of the Dec. 18, 2023 decision. ([ermsta.com](https://ermsta.com/r/covid_decision_20240131.pdf?utm_source=openai)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17 · 2mo ago

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Eric Stansifer votes Against

Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question

I was concerned that people might interpret my Bayesian analysis as the “main product” of the report, in isolation from the rest, which is why I heavily cautioned against taking it too literally; indeed I explicitly state that I do not think it is an...

more AI Verified source (Mar 1, 2024)