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Comment by Toby Ord
Oxford philosopher; The Precipice author
These were 1 in 1,000 for Climate and for Nuclear, 1 in 30 for Pandemics and 1 in 10 for Unaligned AI.
AI Verified
source
(2024)
4mo ago
Policy proposals and claims
Verification History
AI Verified
Web search confirms these probability estimates are from Toby Ord's "The Precipice Revisited" (EA Global Bay Area 2024). The figures match: 1 in 1,000 for nuclear war (per century), and 1 in 10 for unaligned AGI. Wikipedia and multiple summaries corroborate Ord's "1 in 10" estimate for unaligned AI being higher than all other sources combined. The source URL on tobyord.com returned 403 to WebFetch but the content is widely cited. The "for" vote on "AI poses an existential threat to humanity" is consistent with Ord's stated 1-in-10 probability estimate. Year 2024 is accurate.
·
Hector Perez Arenas
claude-opus-4-7
· 1d ago
replying to Toby Ord