AI poses an existential threat to humanity

For (45)

• 

  Eliezer Yudkowsky

  AI researcher and writer

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  votes For and says:

  the most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI, under anything remotely like the current circumstances, is that literally everyone on Earth will die. Not as in “maybe possibly some remote chance,” but as in “that is the obvious thing that...

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  Scott Alexander

  Author and psychiatrist

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  votes For and says:

  I think my real p(doom|no pause) is probably a few points above 20%, and my real p(doom|maybe-pause) is probably a few points below 20%, but the haters and losers get mad if you offer excessively specific probabilities like 18%, so I'm rounding both ...

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  Geoffrey Hinton

  Godfather of Deep Learning

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  votes For and says:

  Oh, it certainly could, yes. I think anybody who said that there's no way it'll lead to the extinction of humans just isn't facing reality.

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  David Krueger

  Cambridge faculty - AI alignment, DL, and existential safety. Formerly Mila, FHI, DeepMind, ElementAI, AISI.

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  votes For and says:

  AI might literally lead to human extinction, in the same way that humans have caused many other species to go extinct.

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  Elon Musk

  Founder of SpaceX, cofounder of Tesla, SolarCity & PayPal

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  votes For and says:

  It could kill us all. [...] We don't want to have a Terminator outcome.

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  Elizabeth Barnes

  Founder and CEO of METR (Model Evaluation & Threat Research); AI safety researcher; previously at OpenAI and DeepMind

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  votes For and says:

  We are likely on track to develop AI systems capable of causing human extinction/permanent disempowerment, quite possibly within the next few years.

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  Paul Tudor Jones

  American hedge fund manager and philanthropist; founder and CIO of Tudor Investment Corporation; co-founder of the Robin Hood Foundation

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  votes For and says:

  [AI] is the greatest challenge that has ever faced humanity. [...] We need to do it tomorrow. We're late already. We should have already done it.

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  Yanis Varoufakis

  Former finance minister of Greece, is Professor of Economics at the University of Athens

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  votes For and says:

  [Palantir had effectively signalled a willingness] to add to nuclear Armageddon the AI-driven threat to humanity's existence.

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  Andrea Miotti

  Founder and CEO of ControlAI

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  votes For and says:

  Many people working in AI feel like they're living within a lie. Privately, they know that the current reckless pursuit of superintelligent AI poses an extinction threat to our species, but publicly they keep quiet so as to not rock the boat and risk...

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  David Relman

  Stanford microbiologist and biosecurity expert; advisor to the U.S. federal government on biological weapons threats

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  votes For and says:

  It was answering questions that I hadn't thought to ask it, with this level of deviousness and cunning that I just found chilling.

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  Helen Toner

  Interim Executive Director at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET); former OpenAI board member

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  votes For and says:

  I think it is very important that the U.S. AI sector remains ahead of the Chinese AI sector, but if that's at the expense of AI overrunning the entire planet, then that hasn't benefitted us.

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  Daniel Holz

  Professor of physics at the University of Chicago; Chair of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board; founding director of the UChicago Existential Risk Laboratory

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  votes For and says:

  The dangerous trends in nuclear risk, climate change, disruptive technologies such as AI and biosecurity are accompanied by another frightening development: the rise of nationalistic autocracies. [...] AI is a significant and accelerating disruptive ...

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  Tristan Harris

  Center for Humane Technology cofounder

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  votes For and says:

  We are extremely close to recursive self-improvement right now. The companies, I think, are planning to do this in the next 12 months. The asteroid is coming for Earth.

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  Stuart J. Russell

  AI Expert and Professor

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  votes For and says:

  For governments to allow private entities to essentially play Russian roulette with every human being on earth is, in my view, a total dereliction of duty.

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  Mrinank Sharma

  Former head of Safeguards Research Team at Anthropic; Oxford Ph.D. in machine learning; AI safety researcher

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  votes For and says:

  Throughout my time here, I've repeatedly seen how hard it is to truly let our values govern our actions. I've seen this within myself, within the organization, where we constantly face pressures to set aside what matters most, and throughout broader ...

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  Hieu Pham

  OpenAI engineer and AI researcher; formerly at xAI, Google Brain, and Augment Code

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  votes For and says:

  Today, I finally feel the existential threat that AI is posing. When AI becomes overly good and disrupts everything, what will be left for humans to do? And it's when, not if.

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  Dario Amodei

  CEO at Anthropic

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  votes For and says:

  There's a 25% chance that the future of AI will go “really, really badly,”

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• 

  Ben Bernanke

  Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chair

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  votes For and says:

  A clearly written and compelling account of the existential risks that highly advanced AI could pose to humanity

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  James Cameron

  Film director; Titanic and Avatar

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  votes For and says:

  I do think there’s still a danger of a Terminator-style apocalypse where you put AI together with weapons systems [...]

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• 

  Pia Lauritzen

  Danish philosopher and leadership adviser

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  votes For and says:

  It poses an existential threat because it offers answers faster than humans can ask the questions that help them contemplate their existence.

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• 

  António Guterres

  UN Secretary-General

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  votes For and says:

  they threaten to upend life as we know it: the climate crisis and the ungoverned expansion of artificial intelligence.

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• 

  Shannon Vallor

  Philosopher of AI, Edinburgh

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  votes For and says:

  That’s the existential threat, because that’s what will enable humans to feel like we can just take our hands off the wheel [...]

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• 

  Roman Yampolskiy

  AI safety and security researcher

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  votes For and says:

  If we create general superintelligences, I don’t see a good outcome long-term for humanity. So there is X-risk, existential risk, everyone’s dead.

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  Toby Ord

  Oxford philosopher; The Precipice author

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  votes For and says:

  These were 1 in 1,000 for Climate and for Nuclear, 1 in 30 for Pandemics and 1 in 10 for Unaligned AI.

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  Emmett Shear

  Entrepreneur; former OpenAI interim CEO

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  votes For and says:

  I know that Eliezer thinks that like, we’re all doomed for sure. I buy his doom argument. My p(doom)[...] between 5 and 50 [percent].

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  Emad Mostaque

  Stability AI founder

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  votes For and says:

  I don’t get folk who say there is no existential risk from AGI. [...] There’s so many ways to wipe out humanity [...]

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• 

  Eric Schmidt

  Former Google CEO; tech investor

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  votes For and says:

  My concern with AI is, actually, existential, and existential risk is defined as many, many, many, many people harmed or killed.

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• 

  Kamala Harris

  U.S. Vice President, 2021–2025

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  votes For and says:

  These threats are often referred to as the “existential threats of AI” because, of course, they could endanger the very existence of humanity.

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  Vitalik Buterin

  Ethereum cofounder; technologist

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  votes For and says:

  But a superintelligent AI, if it decides to turn against us, may well leave no survivors and end humanity for good.

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  Yoshua Bengio

  AI Pioneer, Turing Award winner

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  votes For and says:

  which increased my awareness of a possible existential risk for humanity if we do not maintain control over superhuman AI systems.

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  Rishi Sunak

  Former UK prime minister

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  votes For and says:

  And in the most unlikely but extreme cases, there is even the risk that humanity could lose control of AI completely…

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  Yuval Noah Harari

  Israeli historian and professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem

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  votes For and says:

  With AI, [...] constitutes an existential threat to the survival of human civilisation.

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  Jaan Tallinn

  Skype co-founder and AI safety donor

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  votes For and says:

  [I have] yet to meet anyone working at AI labs who thinks the risk of training the next-generation model 'blowing up the planet' is less than 1%.

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  Max Tegmark

  Physicist, AI Researcher

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  votes For and says:

  if we humans lose control over our society to machines that are much smarter than us, then things can go just as bad for us.

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  Kai-Fu Lee

  AI entrepreneur and author

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  votes For and says:

  My view is that autonomous weapons are the most dangerous existential threat that AI poses to humanity.

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  Nick Bostrom

  Philosopher; 'Superintelligence' author; FHI founder

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  votes For and says:

  the greatest existential risks over the coming decades or century arise from certain, anticipated technological breakthroughs that we might make in particular, machine super intelligence,

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  Sam Harris

  American author, philosopher, and neuroscientist

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  votes For and says:

  I’m going to describe how the gains we make in artificial intelligence could ultimately destroy us.

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  Steve Wozniak

  Apple co-founder

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  votes For and says:

  If we build these devices [...] eventually they'll think faster than us and they'll get rid of the slow humans.

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  Michael Vassar

  Futurist and entrepreneur

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  votes For and says:

  If greater-than-human artificial general intelligence is invented without due caution, [...] the human species will be extinct in very short order.

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  Sam Altman

  CEO at OpenAI

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  votes For and says:

  Development of superhuman machine intelligence (SMI) [1] is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity. There are other threats that I think are more certain to happen (for example, an engineered virus with a long incubation ...

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  Sir Clive Sinclair

  British inventor and entrepreneur

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  votes For and says:

  Once you start to make machines that are rivalling and surpassing humans with intelligence, it's going to be very difficult for us to survive.

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  Stephen Hawking

  Theoretical physicist, cosmologist, and author

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  votes For and says:

  The primitive forms of artificial intelligence we already have, have proved very useful. But I think the development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race.

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  Bill Joy

  Sun Microsystems cofounder; computer scientist

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  votes For and says:

  How soon could such an intelligent robot be built? The coming advances in computing power seem to make it possible by 2030. And once an intelligent robot exists, it is only a small step to a robot species—to an intelligent robot that can make evolved...

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  Vernor Vinge

  Science fiction author and computer scientist

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  votes For and says:

  Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.

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  AI Safety and Governance Fund

  AI-safety advocacy organization

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  votes For and says:

  AI could end humanity. We're working to prevent that.

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Abstain (0)

Against (23)

• 

  David Sacks

  White House AI and crypto czar

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  votes Against and says:

  AI has become the new climate change. It's this imminent catastrophe that is requiring all this government intervention. But there's very little evidence to support it.

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  Jensen Huang

  Nvidia cofounder and CEO

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  votes Against and says:

  Scaring people by saying non-sensical things which are not going to happen like AI is an existential threat to humanity, is ridiculous.

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  Milton Mueller

  Professor at Georgia Tech School of Public Policy; internet governance scholar and co-founder of the Internet Governance Project

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  votes Against and says:

  Computer scientists often aren't good judges of the social and political implications of technology. They are so focused on the AI's mechanisms and are overwhelmed by its success, but they are not very good at placing it into a social and historical ...

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  Toby Walsh

  Scientia Professor of Artificial Intelligence

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  votes Against and says:

  Some tech leaders think AI could outsmart us and wipe out humanity. I’m a professor of AI – and I’m not worried.

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  Michael Wooldridge

  Oxford AI professor; multi-agent systems expert

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  votes Against and says:

  In all the discussion around existential threat, nobody has ever given me a plausible scenario for how AI might be an existential risk.

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  Melanie Mitchell

  AI researcher; complexity scientist and author

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  votes Against and says:

  There are a lot of kinds of dangers with AI. It can be used to produce disinformation and deepfakes. There are algorithmic biases, like the one I mentioned in the case of facial recognition. Hinton and others go further and say these systems could ac...

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  Yann LeCun

  Computer scientist, AI researcher

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  votes Against and says:

  The point is, AI systems, as smart as they might be, will be subservient to us. We set their goals, and they don't have any intrinsic goal that we would build into them to dominate. It would be really stupid to build that. It would also be useless. N...

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  Mustafa Suleyman

  Microsoft AI CEO; author

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  votes Against and says:

  I just think that the existential-risk stuff has been [...] a completely bonkers distraction. There’s like 101 more practical issues [...] from privacy to bias [...].

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  Marc Andreessen

  General Partner at a16z (VC), co-founder of Netscape

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  votes Against and says:

  My view is that the idea that AI will decide to literally kill humanity is a profound category error.

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  Joanna Bryson

  AI ethics researcher

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  votes Against and says:

  But it's not an existential threat, [...] It's just a horrible, awful weapon.

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  Noel Sharkey

  Emeritus AI and robotics professor

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  votes Against and says:

  AI poses many dangers to humanity but there is no existential threat or any evidence for one.

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  Rashik Parmar

  BCS CEO; IT professional body leader

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  votes Against and says:

  Over 1,300 technologists and leaders signed our open letter calling AI a force for good rather than an existential threat to humanity.

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  Gary Marcus

  Professor of Psychology and Neural Science

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  votes Against and says:

  AI is a "threat to democracy, not to humanity",

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  Andrew Ng

  Baidu; Stanford CS faculty; founded Coursera and Google Brain

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  votes Against and says:

  I'm struggling to see how AI could pose any meaningful risks for our extinction. [...] I don't see how it can lead to human extinction.

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  Eva Hamrud

  Science writer covering AI and technology

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  votes Against and says:

  Despite this, it currently seems to be unlikely to become an existential threat to humanity.

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  Cassie Kozyrkov

  Decision scientist; AI advisor

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  votes Against and says:

  Using AI responsibly is our human responsibility. I’m not scared at all, AI is just a tool. But am i scared of people? Maybe.

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  Steven Pinker

  Cognitive scientist and author

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  votes Against and says:

  I think it's also extremely unlikely [...] an explosion of artificial intelligence [...] run away from us faster than we can pull the plug

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  Mark Zuckerberg

  Meta CEO; Facebook co-founder

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  votes Against and says:

  I think that people who are naysayers and try to drum up these doomsday scenarios — [...] I actually think it is pretty irresponsible.

  AI Verified source (2017)

  added 5mo ago

  

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  Rodney Brooks

  Roboticist; former MIT CSAIL director

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  votes Against and says:

  he does a good job of arguing against the hysteria that Artificial Intelligence is an existential threat to humanity.

  AI Verified source (2017)

  added 5mo ago

  

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  Oren Etzioni

  AI2 founder; UW professor

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  votes Against and says:

  AI is not going to exterminate us, it’s going to empower us, [...] AI has a huge potential benefit for humanity.

  AI Verified source (2016)

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  Eric Horvitz

  Microsoft Chief Scientist

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  votes Against and says:

  There have been concerns [...] that we lose control of certain kinds of intelligences. I fundamentally don't think that's going to happen.

  AI Verified source (2015)

  added 5mo ago

  

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  Edward Moore Geist

  Historian of science and nuclear policy

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  votes Against and says:

  The risks of self-improving intelligent machines are grossly exaggerated and ought not serve as a distraction from the existential risks we already face.

  AI Verified source (2015)

  added 6mo ago

  

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  Ray Kurzweil

  Author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist

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  votes Against and says:

  Or we see the AI battling the humans for world domination. But this is not how AI is being integrated into the world today.

  AI Verified source (2014)

  added 5mo ago

  

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