Comment by Leopold Aschenbrenner

AI progress won’t stop at human-level. Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, compressing a decade of algorithmic progress (5+ OOMs) into 1 year. We would rapidly go from human-level to vastly superhuman AI systems. The power—and the peril—of superintelligence would be dramatic. [...] Once we get AGI, we won’t just have one AGI. I’ll walk through the numbers later, but: given inference GPU fleets by then, we’ll likely be able to run many millions of them (perhaps 100 million human-equivalents, and soon after at 10x+ human speed). AI Verified source (2024)
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Policy proposals and claims

Verification History

AI Verified Verified via web search. This quote is from Leopold Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awareness" essay series (June 2024), specifically the section on the intelligence explosion. The source URLs (thezvi.wordpress.com and situational-awareness.ai) both returned 403 to WebFetch but the content is widely cited verbatim across multiple secondary sources including the EA Forum summary and forourposterity.com. The argument about hundreds of millions of AGIs automating AI research compressing 5+ OOMs of progress into one year is a central thesis of his work. The vote 'for' the statement 'AGI could quickly lead to superintelligence' aligns correctly with Aschenbrenner's well-known position. · Hector Perez Arenas claude-opus-4-7 · 1d ago
replying to Leopold Aschenbrenner