AGI could quickly lead to superintelligence

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Key insights

The deepest disagreement is over mechanism: supporters expect automated AI research or other feedback loops to compound quickly, while opponents say current methods lack a credible route to runaway self-improvement.
Definitions shape the dispute, with some quotes treating AGI as human-level generality, others as already surpassing humans across cognitive tasks, and skeptics explicitly separating AGI from singularity or superintelligence.
Supporters propose more than one route from AGI to superintelligence, including recursive self-improvement, faster and more numerous copies of AGI systems, and massive parallel deployment on concentrated compute.
Many supportive quotes come from current researchers and executives at frontier labs, and a recurring theme in those quotes is the need for pacing, containment, and international coordination alongside capability gains.
Even some supportive voices describe the transition as potentially fast without being instantaneous, emphasizing soft self-improvement or a sequence of rapid transformations rather than one sudden leap.

Arguments for

Recursive self-improvement

Proponents argue that once AI can do AI research, it can design better versions of itself, which then help produce even smarter systems. This feedback loop could compress years of progress into months or a single year and rapidly carry systems from AGI into clear superintelligence.

If, because of RSI, we got a jump as big as GPT-3 to a Mythos (i.e. 6 years of AI progress) within a single year of achieving AGI, then the thing we get there at the end of that year is definitively and wildly superhuman.

Dwarkesh Patel · Aug 11, 2026 · full quote
Artificial General Intelligence, or AGI, is AI that can do any intellectual task as well as, or better than, the average human. A Personalized SuperIntelligence, or PSI, does not stop there. Because PSI is self-improving, it will become exponentially more intelligent than its cre…

Craig A. Kaplan · Aug 10, 2026 · full quote
Many researchers also consider recursive self-improvement (RSI) plausible within the next few years, accelerating progress in a way that could outpace our ability to understand and govern these systems.

Dawn Song · Jul 2026 · full quote
What I'm looking at is a technological trend where, if anything, the speed will accelerate further. [...] My prediction is by the end of 2028, it's more likely than not that we have an AI system where you would be able to say to it: 'Make a better version of yourself.' And it jus…

Jack Clark · May 7, 2026 · full quote
AI R&D is fully automated in the middle of a year and this kicks off a rapid intelligence explosion that leads to very broadly superhuman AI.

Ajeya Cotra · 2026 · full quote
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—defined as AI systems surpassing human performance across all cognitive tasks—will likely be developed within the next decade. While talk of AGI has become mainstream, very few people are acknowledging that soon after the development of AGI, …

AI Futures Project · Feb 2026 · full quote

Scaling through copies

Others say a fast transition does not require literal self-redesign: if human-level AGI can run faster, be copied many times, and coordinate on research, it could quickly achieve superhuman collective performance. On this view, a fraction of the world's compute or millions of cooperating AGIs could outstrip human researchers and concentrate power very quickly.

If you know how to make human-level AGI, then you can make it faster and you can make a million of them that are cooperating, and now you have superintelligence, but nothing about that necessarily involves any real amount of recursive self-improvement.

Steven Byrnes · Mar 10, 2026 · full quote
AI progress won’t stop at human-level. Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, compressing a decade of algorithmic progress (5+ OOMs) into 1 year. We would rapidly go from human-level to vastly superhuman AI systems. The power—and the peril—of superintelligence w…

Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2024 · full quote
Moreover, frontier AI companies are seeking to develop AI with a specific skill that could very well unlock all others and turbocharge advances: AIs with the ability to advance research in AI. An AI system that would be as capable at AI research as the topmost handful of research…

Yoshua Bengio · 2024 · full quote
That means that a self-improving AI system running on a fraction of the world’s compute could conceivably command more effective compute and intelligence, and therefore a greater balance of power than everyone else combined and become the singular superintelligence we fear.

Mark Zuckerberg · Aug 10, 2026 · full quote
Example 1: self-play. AI is not just human level at chess, it far exceeds human level because of self-play. Example 2: aggregation of peak performance. No human can get all math Olympiad problems right; but an A.I. can be trained on the correct answers to all math Olympiad pro…

Spencer Greenberg 🔍 · full quote

Rapid progress narrows gap

Many supporters point to the recent shockingly fast advance from early language understanding to superhuman performance in software, math, and research. They argue that if models are already doing more of the research work themselves and progress shows no sign of slowing, the gap from expert-level AI to systems far above humans could close faster than expected.

In the span of four years, we have gone from people having their first experience of an AI that could understand language, to AI that is performing superhuman feats of software engineering, making frontier math breakthroughs, and accelerating scientific research. Progress has sho…

Shantanu Jain · Jul 2026 · full quote
Every month, more work is done by the models themselves: infrastructure implementation, code optimization, and experiment design and analysis. This has drastically altered how we work and significantly increased our rate of progress. I’m not sure if or where it tops out, but a ra…

Nicholas Joseph · Jul 2026 · full quote
AI has gone from "dumber than a child" to "expert level" in a few years in many domains. The gap between "expert level" and "above top geniuses" is smaller, so we expect it to take less time. This has been a pattern in fields like chess and Go, where it's only a been a few years …

Scott Alexander · Jun 11, 2026 · full quote
AI is progressing at a rate that our society might not be ready for. Frontier labs are very close to AI that can exceed even the best people on almost every metric of intelligence. This will lead to unprecedented social and safety risks. To ensure a positive future we need to dev…

Shengjia Zhao · Jul 2026 · full quote
At this point, I think we're at a threshold moment where AGI, artificial general intelligence, is on the horizon, maybe in the next five to eight years. [...] I think it's going to be something like 10 times the impact of the Industrial Revolution, but happening at 10 times the s…

Demis Hassabis · 2026 · full quote
I have worked in AI for a decade. Every few months in the last years, I have found myself surprised again and again at how rapidly the technology advances, no matter how often I update my predictions. AI may end up progressing far more quickly than societies and states can adapt.

Laura Weidinger · Jul 2026 · full quote

Race dynamics compress transition

Some supporters argue that a quick move from AGI toward superintelligence is likely not only because it is technically feasible but because frontier companies and governments are incentivized to keep pushing once AGI appears. The quotes describe developers as already racing toward self-improving systems and expecting to press on rather than slow down.

Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives.

Jacob Coxon · Sep 9, 2026 · full quote
The companies at the frontier are actively working to build artificial general intelligence (AGI), i.e. AI that is as capable as human experts across a wide range of fields. The CEOs of these companies claim that this goal will likely be reached within the next 2-5 years, a view …

Helen Toner · Apr 22, 2026 · full quote
Unless we change companies' default incentives, I worry about a race on AI R&D going much faster than is ideal for safety. International coordination via the government is necessary; we need to have a real slowdown option.

Jasmine Wang · Jul 2026 · full quote
We believe AI will do, and is doing, great things for the world. We are already seeing instances where pushing research maximally fast creates serious issues, and it is possible that these will get much more severe. Right now, competitive dynamics mean there is no realistic alter…

Mike Heaton · Jul 2026 · full quote
The world is locked in a deadly race towards an intelligence explosion, where AI’s ability to create better AIs reaches a critical point, just like a runaway nuclear chain reaction. Going slower would give us much-needed time to make it go well, but no individual actor is willing…

Leo Gao · Jul 2026 · full quote
As the race to AGI intensifies, the national security state will get involved. The USG will wake from its slumber, and by 27/28 we’ll get some form of government AGI project. No startup can handle superintelligence. Somewhere in a SCIF, the endgame will be on. [...] And so by 2…

Leopold Aschenbrenner · Jun 2024 · full quote

Arguments against

Runaway mechanism unproven

Opponents argue that the classic intelligence-explosion story assumes an improvement operator or form of self-improvement that has not been shown, and that it abstracts away from physical and practical constraints. On this view, becoming more capable does not by itself imply a runaway takeoff or automatic dominance.

It makes a more specific claim about the route from recursive generative modelling to recursive self-improvement. An intelligence explosion requires an improvement operator. Closed-loop density matching does not supply one.

Hector Zenil · Jan 5, 2026 · full quote
The concept of superintelligence is built on a flawed premise. The idea is that once you have an intelligence that is as good or better than humans — in other words, AGI — then that intelligence can improve itself, leading to a runaway effect. This idea comes from Oxford-based ph…

Tim Dettmers · 2025 · full quote
There is no such thing as an intelligence explosion. There is no reason AI should become in control just because it is more capable.

Yann LeCun · 2025 · full quote

Long path or no path

Some critics say superintelligence may be an unachievable dream, or at least not something that follows soon after AGI. They distinguish AGI from singularity and describe the path from one to the other as a long continuation rather than an immediate leap.

Building systems that exceed human intelligence—superintelligence—is likely an unachievable dream.

Gopal Gupta · Aug 12, 2026 · full quote
But then there is a long continuation from what we call AGI to what we call Superintelligence.

Sam Altman · 2024 · full quote
It depends on your definition of AGI, right? AGI isn’t the singularity. The singularity is an exponentially recursive self-improving system that very rapidly accelerates far beyond anything that might look like human intelligence. To me, AGI is a general-purpose learning system …

Mustafa Suleyman · 2024 · full quote

Benchmarks are not breadth

Other skeptics argue that recent gains look narrow or benchmark-driven and do not yet amount to evidence for broad, domain-general superintelligence. They question whether automating AI R&D inside a data center would generalize to the wide real-world competence that the stronger claim assumes.

I do not think this will happen. I don’t think that automating AI R&D will rapidly produce domain-general superintelligence. I don’t think that a data centre of geniuses, largely separated from the rest of the economy, will figure out how to cure Alzheimer’s, design mosquito-size…

Tom Reed · Sep 10, 2026 · full quote
Plot the same improvements on a linear y-axis and you get steady incremental gains, impressive but not the hockey stick that triggered the panic. [...] We don't have evidence that Mythos is actually an important step towards broad superintelligence.

Gary Marcus · 2026 · full quote
Throwing more words and GPUs into the word-guessing program won't make it sentient. [...] one of our mares gives birth to a locomotive.

Cory Doctorow · Dec 5, 2025 · full quote
We can see this more directly. There are already entities with vastly greater than human intelligence working on the problem of augmenting their own intelligence. A great many, in fact. We call them corporations. And while we may have a variety of thoughts about them, not one has…

Ramez Naam · 2015 · full quote

Middle ground

Fast but staged transition

Some quotes suggest the transition could be real yet not arrive as a single abrupt jump. They describe soft self-improvement already boosting human researchers and say the decisive uncertainty is whether AI quickly acquires fuzzier planning and intuition, with outcomes also shaped by developer choices and broader context.

Achieving [human-level AGI] would have profound and far-reaching impacts on human society. ... AI progress might continue to accelerate over the next years. This could imply that the image of a single transformative step change, caused by the introduction of human-level AGI into …

Google DeepMind · Jun 10, 2026 · full quote
We are standing in the foothills of the singularity. [...] I think what we're seeing is soft self-improvement, in the sense of these coding agents are making engineers much more productive.

Demis Hassabis · 2026 · full quote
Yeah. I think the main uncertainty here is: are the models going to be good not just at verifiable tasks with clean rewards, but also fuzzier things — intuition, fuzzy planning, this kind of thing? I think people are overweighting the probability that they’re only good at the ver…

Geoffrey Irving · Jun 29, 2026 · full quote
The development of full artificial general intelligence – what we will call here AI that is "outside the Gates" – would be a fundamental shift in the nature of the world: by its very nature it means adding a new species of intelligence to Earth with greater capability than that o…

Anthony Aguirre · 2025 · full quote

Supporters of the statement largely treat the jump from AGI to superintelligence as a plausible near-term consequence of automated AI research, parallel deployment, and competitive pressure to keep scaling. Opponents mainly challenge the assumed feedback loop, the evidentiary basis, or the idea that human-level capability naturally yields runaway intelligence. The debate therefore centers less on whether advanced AI matters and more on what happens immediately after AGI: rapid compounding or more bounded progress.

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Results (79 votes):

Total (79 votes)

For 68 (86%) Abstain 0 (0%) Against 11 (14%)

For (61)

Jacob Coxon
AI safety researcher at Anthropic who publicly warned about risks from frontier AI development.

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votes For and says:

Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives.
AI Verified source (Sep 9, 2026)

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Dwarkesh Patel
Technology journalist and host of the Dwarkesh Podcast, which features in-depth interviews on artificial intelligence, science, and technology.

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votes For and says:

If, because of RSI, we got a jump as big as GPT-3 to a Mythos (i.e. 6 years of AI progress) within a single year of achieving AGI, then the thing we get there at the end of that year is definitively and wildly superhuman.
AI Verified source (Aug 11, 2026)

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Craig A. Kaplan
Founder of iQ Company and author of AI safety research on safe superintelligence.

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votes For and says:

Artificial General Intelligence, or AGI, is AI that can do any intellectual task as well as, or better than, the average human. A Personalized SuperIntelligence, or PSI, does not stop there. Because PSI is self-improving, it will become exponentially...
more AI Verified source (Aug 10, 2026)

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Mark Zuckerberg
Meta CEO; Facebook co-founder

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votes For and says:

That means that a self-improving AI system running on a fraction of the world’s compute could conceivably command more effective compute and intelligence, and therefore a greater balance of power than everyone else combined and become the singular su...
more AI Verified source (Aug 10, 2026)

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Nate Kratzer
Data Scientist at Meta.

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votes For and says:

There are a lot of potentially good outcomes from AI. I think the most likely outcomes are good. But the risk of bad and even catastrophic outcomes is high enough to be worth taking seriously. We should actively build safety mechanisms in case we nee...
more AI Verified source (Jul 2026)

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Austin Han
Researcher at OpenAI; commenter on the July 2026 Pacing the Frontier statement.

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votes For and says:

Building the mechanisms to coordinate, collaborate, and when necessary, deliberate the pace of AI development will be one of the most important, and delicate, challenges we now face.
AI Verified source (Jul 2026)

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Jasmine Wang
OpenAI employee and AI researcher.

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votes For and says:

Unless we change companies' default incentives, I worry about a race on AI R&D going much faster than is ideal for safety. International coordination via the government is necessary; we need to have a real slowdown option.
AI Verified source (Jul 2026)

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Alex Cloud
Member of Technical Staff at Anthropic; signatory to the July 2026 Pacing the Frontier statement.

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votes For and says:

I expect this trend to continue, possibly to a point where AI development is dramatically faster than today and involves almost no human input. I don’t think the world is ready for this possibility.
AI Verified source (Jul 2026)

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Michael Mulet
Anthropic employee; commenter on the July 2026 Pacing the Frontier statement.

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votes For and says:

Whatever comes of this stays limited in scope rather than growing into something expansive or excessive. Still, the capabilities of this kind of AI should be taken seriously, and they warrant measured action.
AI Verified source (Jul 2026)

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Nicholas Joseph
Member of Technical Staff at Anthropic leading pretraining.

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votes For and says:

Every month, more work is done by the models themselves: infrastructure implementation, code optimization, and experiment design and analysis. This has drastically altered how we work and significantly increased our rate of progress. I’m not sure if ...
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Ryan Kaufman
AI researcher at Standard Intelligence.

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votes For and says:

Misalignment is a still-unsolved technical problem, as the Hugging Face incident made clear, and it will only be amplified by more intelligent models. Solving the alignment problem may require a global slowdown of the frontier, including internal dep...
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Dawn Song
Co-author; AI researcher

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votes For and says:

Many researchers also consider recursive self-improvement (RSI) plausible within the next few years, accelerating progress in a way that could outpace our ability to understand and govern these systems.
AI Verified source (Jul 2026)

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Shantanu Jain
Member of Technical Staff at OpenAI; artificial-intelligence researcher.

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votes For and says:

In the span of four years, we have gone from people having their first experience of an AI that could understand language, to AI that is performing superhuman feats of software engineering, making frontier math breakthroughs, and accelerating scienti...
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Darshan Kalola
Applied AI Engineer at Anthropic; commenter on the July 2026 Pacing the Frontier statement.

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votes For and says:

There is intense commercial pressure to win the AI race. Ensuring safety often requires making tradeoffs that hurt commercial interests. Therefore, I think its a good idea for better coordination between labs so we can build this technology safely, a...
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Mike Heaton
Member of Technical Staff in Audio at OpenAI; commenter on the July 2026 Pacing the Frontier statement.

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votes For and says:

We believe AI will do, and is doing, great things for the world. We are already seeing instances where pushing research maximally fast creates serious issues, and it is possible that these will get much more severe. Right now, competitive dynamics me...
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Elie Bakouch
AI researcher at Prime Intellect; commenter on the July 2026 Pacing the Frontier statement.

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votes For and says:

Supportive of this, but we should be careful not to use RSI narratives to create a regulatory moat. These risks need to be properly quantified, more openly, not derived from big labs narratives only!
AI Verified source (Jul 2026)

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Thomas Wolf
Co-founder and Chief Science Officer of Hugging Face.

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votes For and says:

AI progress has already out-paced society’s capabilities to handle it, let’s be careful for it not to out-pace its builder’s capabilities to control it. The journey is as important as the destination.
AI Verified source (Jul 2026)

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Ben Nowak
Principal Engineer at Meta; commenter on the July 2026 Pacing the Frontier statement.

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votes For and says:

Responsible AI development requires more than capable models. It requires independent monitoring, containment, clear limits on authority, and mechanisms for coordinated pacing if automated research begins to outrun those controls. Building that capac...
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Andrew Locke
Lead Engineer for Federal at Cognition; commenter on the July 2026 Pacing the Frontier statement.

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votes For and says:

The pace of frontier AI development is currently outstripping our ability to ensure its safety, governance, and alignment with human values. We are racing to build systems with unprecedented capability without first building the guardrails, evaluatio...
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Leo He
Research Engineer at Google; commenter on the July 2026 Pacing the Frontier statement.

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votes For and says:

As someone who works on recursive self-improvement and automated evaluation, I sign this because the diagnosis is right and the ask is refreshingly humble: pace, not pause. The phrase that matters is "automating AI research": that's the point where s...
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Felix Juefei Xu
Research Scientist at Google working on AI safety, robustness, evaluation, and responsible model development.

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votes For and says:

Having worked both on AI safety topics—including robustness, evaluation, and responsible model development—and on frontier multimodal AI systems, I have seen firsthand how quickly capabilities can advance and how difficult it can be for our understan...
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Dee Cattle
Research Strategist for Ethics & Safety at Google; AI safety and governance researcher.

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votes For and says:

Humanity is not sufficiently prepared for the impacts of advanced AI in psychological, social, environmental, labour market, and military domains. With an inflection point in recursive AI self-improvement forecasted to be just around the corner, lead...
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Laura Weidinger
Staff Research Scientist at Google; AI researcher.

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votes For and says:

I have worked in AI for a decade. Every few months in the last years, I have found myself surprised again and again at how rapidly the technology advances, no matter how often I update my predictions. AI may end up progressing far more quickly than s...
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Edward Hughes
Chief Scientist at Inherent; AI researcher.

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votes For and says:

As Melvin Kranzberg wrote, technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral. Achieving societal benefit depends on understanding the interdependent ways in which many humans use advanced AI systems in concert, understanding that takes time to ac...
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Will Yager
AI researcher at Anthropic.

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votes For and says:

Like splitting the atom, AI holds the potential for both immense benefit and immense risk. The world should take the time to do this right.
AI Verified source (Jul 2026)

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Matthew Rahtz
Staff Research Engineer at Google; AI capability-evaluation researcher.

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votes For and says:

Even after 3 years working on AI capability evaluations, the recent pace of progress has been a shock. To avoid catastrophic harms from AGI, we need much, much better coordination.
AI Verified source (Jul 2026)

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Leo Gao
Member of Technical Staff at OpenAI; AI researcher.

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votes For and says:

The world is locked in a deadly race towards an intelligence explosion, where AI’s ability to create better AIs reaches a critical point, just like a runaway nuclear chain reaction. Going slower would give us much-needed time to make it go well, but ...
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Ilya Sutskever
AI researcher, co-founder and former former chief scientist at OpenAI

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votes For and says:

Future AI will be extraordinarily powerful compared to anything that exists today, and dealing with this future power will require unprecedented measures, such as the ones described here. The problem statement is real. This works only if it is done i...
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Against (10)

Tom Reed

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votes Against and says:

I do not think this will happen. I don’t think that automating AI R&D will rapidly produce domain-general superintelligence. I don’t think that a data centre of geniuses, largely separated from the rest of the economy, will figure out how to cure Alz...
more AI Verified source (Sep 10, 2026)

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Gopal Gupta
Professor of Computer Science and Director of the Center for Applied AI and Machine Learning at the University of Texas at Dallas.

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votes Against and says:

Building systems that exceed human intelligence—superintelligence—is likely an unachievable dream.
AI Verified source (Aug 12, 2026)

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More h/agi votes

AGI will create abundance

Build artificial general intelligence

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