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Could AGI quickly lead to superintelligence?
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Spencer Greenberg 🔍A mathematician/entrepreneur in social science. Here, my aim is to help you gain insights about psychology, critical thinking, philosophy, tech, and society.agrees and says:Example 1: self-play. AI is not just human level at chess, it far exceeds human level because of self-play. Example 2: aggregation of peak performance. No human can get all math Olympiad problems right; but an A.I. can be trained on the correct answers to all math Olympiad problems. Example 3: aggregation of knowledge. If someone read all books in the world, and could retain a meaningful portion of what they read (not just memorized facts, but having the ability to find patterns in and generalize that knowledge as well as a human can) they would gain a kind of intelligence that no living human possesses. source UnverifiedDelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Nick BostromPhilosopher; 'Superintelligence' author; FHI founderstrongly agrees and says:once we have full AGI, super intelligence might be quite close on the heels of that. (2025) source UnverifiedDelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Eliezer YudkowskyAI researcher and writerstrongly agrees and says:From our perspective, an AI will either be so slow as to be bottlenecked, or so fast as to be FOOM. [...] 'AI go FOOM'. (2008) source UnverifiedDelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Max TegmarkPhysicist, AI Researcherstrongly agrees and says:It might take two weeks or two days or two hours or two minutes. [...] It’s very appropriate to call this an “intelligence explosion”. (2022) source UnverifiedDelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Paul ChristianoARC founder; alignment researcherdisagrees and says:I expect “slow takeoff,” which we could operationalize as the economy doubling over some 4 year interval before it doubles over any 1 year interval. (2018) source UnverifiedDelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Robin HansonEconomist; Overcoming Bias blogger; GMUstrongly disagrees and says:I don’t think a sudden (“foom”) takeover by a super intelligent computer is likely. source UnverifiedDelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.