AGI could quickly lead to superintelligence

Example 1: self-play. AI is not just human level at chess, it far exceeds human level because of self-play. Example 2: aggregation of peak performance. No human can get all math Olympiad problems right; but an A.I. can be trained on the correct an... more Unverified source

Once AI reaches human-level capabilities, we will be able to use it to improve itself in a self-referential way. I personally believe that if we can reach AGI, we will reach ASI shortly, maybe a few years after that. Unverified source

The development of full artificial general intelligence – what we will call here AI that is "outside the Gates" – would be a fundamental shift in the nature of the world: by its very nature it means adding a new species of intelligence to Earth with ... more Unverified source (2025)

Moreover, frontier AI companies are seeking to develop AI with a specific skill that could very well unlock all others and turbocharge advances: AIs with the ability to advance research in AI. An AI system that would be as capable at AI research as t... more Unverified source (2024)

My own view is once you get to human-level AGI, within a few years you could get a radically superhuman AGI — unless the AGI threatens to throttle its own development out of its own conservatism. I think once an AGI can introspect its own mind, then ... more Unverified source (2024)

So what happens when this thing starts to scale? Well, a lot. One way to say this is that within three to five years we'll have what is called general intelligence AGI, which can be defined as a system that is as smart as the smartest mathematician, ... more Unverified source (2025)

If you imagine you create this process where you have an AI that is smarter than you, or about as smart as you, it’s [then] making an AI that’s much smarter. It’s going to enlist that AI help to make an AI smarter than that. It sounds like a kind of ... more Unverified source (2025)

So we’ve already gone from “mere human intelligence” to “human with all knowledge, photographic memory, lightning calculations, and solves problems a hundred times faster than anyone else.” This suggests that “merely human level intelligence” isn’t m... more Unverified source (2015)

AI progress won’t stop at human-level. Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, compressing a decade of algorithmic progress (5+ OOMs) into 1 year. We would rapidly go from human-level to vastly superhuman AI systems. The power—and th... more Unverified source (2024)

Once humans develop artificial intelligence it would take off on its own,[...] Humans [...] couldn't compete and would be superseded. Unverified source (2014)

an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would [...] be an 'intelligence explosion,' and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Unverified source (1965)

If there is AI, then there will be AI+ [...] Soon after we have produced a human-level AI, we will produce an even more intelligent AI. Unverified source (2010)

once we have full AGI, super intelligence might be quite close on the heels of that. Unverified source (2025)

It might take two weeks or two days or two hours or two minutes. [...] It’s very appropriate to call this an “intelligence explosion”. Unverified source (2022)

From our perspective, an AI will either be so slow as to be bottlenecked, or so fast as to be FOOM. [...] 'AI go FOOM'. Unverified source (2008)

Until some company or scientist says ‘Here’s the proof! We can definitely have a safety mechanism that can scale to any level of intelligence,’ I don’t think we should be developing those general superintelligences. We can get most of the benefits w... more Unverified source (2024)

There’s also a lot of hype, that AI will create evil robots with super-intelligence. That’s an unnecessary distraction. Those of us on the frontline shipping code, we’re excited by AI, but we don’t see a realistic path for our software to become sen... more Unverified source (2015)

My own opinion is that of course this is possible in principle. I would never have started working on Artificial Intelligence if I did not believe that. [...] Even if it is possible I personally think we are far, far further away from understanding ... more Unverified source

Two “extreme” positions both seem false to me. First, you might think that the world would be instantly transformed on the scale of seconds or days (“the Singularity”), as superior intelligence builds on itself and solves every possible scientific, e... more Unverified source (2024)

It depends on your definition of AGI, right? AGI isn’t the singularity. The singularity is an exponentially recursive self-improving system that very rapidly accelerates far beyond anything that might look like human intelligence. To me, AGI is a ge... more Unverified source (2024)

We can see this more directly. There are already entities with vastly greater than human intelligence working on the problem of augmenting their own intelligence. A great many, in fact. We call them corporations. And while we may have a variety of th... more Unverified source (2015)

The concept of superintelligence is built on a flawed premise. The idea is that once you have an intelligence that is as good or better than humans — in other words, AGI — then that intelligence can improve itself, leading to a runaway effect. This i... more Unverified source (2025)

But then there is a long continuation from what we call AGI to what we call Superintelligence. Unverified source (2024)

There is no such thing as an intelligence explosion. There is no reason AI should become in control just because it is more capable. Unverified source (2025)

I don’t think a sudden (“foom”) takeover by a super intelligent computer is likely. Unverified source

I expect “slow takeoff,” which we could operationalize as the economy doubling over some 4 year interval before it doubles over any 1 year interval. Unverified source (2018)