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Could AGI quickly lead to superintelligence?
For (7)
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Spencer Greenberg 🔍A mathematician/entrepreneur in social science. Here, my aim is to help you gain insights about psychology, critical thinking, philosophy, tech, and society.votes For and says:Example 1: self-play. AI is not just human level at chess, it far exceeds human level because of self-play. Example 2: aggregation of peak performance. No human can get all math Olympiad problems right; but an A.I. can be trained on the correct an... more Unverified sourceDelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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David J. ChalmersPhilosopher of mind, consciousness and AIvotes For and says:If there is AI, then there will be AI+ [...] Soon after we have produced a human-level AI, we will produce an even more intelligent AI. Unverified source (2010)DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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I. J. GoodBritish statistician; Turing collaboratorvotes For and says:an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would [...] be an 'intelligence explosion,' and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Unverified source (1965)DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Stephen HawkingTheoretical physicist, cosmologist, and authorvotes For and says:Once humans develop artificial intelligence it would take off on its own,[...] Humans [...] couldn't compete and would be superseded. Unverified source (2014)DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Nick BostromPhilosopher; 'Superintelligence' author; FHI foundervotes For and says:once we have full AGI, super intelligence might be quite close on the heels of that. Unverified source (2025)DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Eliezer YudkowskyAI researcher and writervotes For and says:From our perspective, an AI will either be so slow as to be bottlenecked, or so fast as to be FOOM. [...] 'AI go FOOM'. Unverified source (2008)DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Max TegmarkPhysicist, AI Researchervotes For and says:It might take two weeks or two days or two hours or two minutes. [...] It’s very appropriate to call this an “intelligence explosion”. Unverified source (2022)DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
Abstain (0)
Against (4)
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Sam AltmanCEO at OpenAIvotes Against and says:But then there is a long continuation from what we call AGI to what we call Superintelligence. Unverified source (2024)DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Yann LeCunComputer scientist, AI researchervotes Against and says:There is no such thing as an intelligence explosion. There is no reason AI should become in control just because it is more capable. Unverified source (2025)DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Paul ChristianoARC founder; alignment researchervotes Against and says:I expect “slow takeoff,” which we could operationalize as the economy doubling over some 4 year interval before it doubles over any 1 year interval. Unverified source (2018)DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Robin HansonEconomist; Overcoming Bias blogger; GMUvotes Against and says:I don’t think a sudden (“foom”) takeover by a super intelligent computer is likely. Unverified sourceDelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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