AGI could quickly lead to superintelligence

For (24)

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  Scott Alexander

  Author and psychiatrist

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  votes For and says:

  AI has gone from "dumber than a child" to "expert level" in a few years in many domains. The gap between "expert level" and "above top geniuses" is smaller, so we expect it to take less time. This has been a pattern in fields like chess and Go, where...

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  Tim Rocktäschel

  AI researcher

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  votes For and says:

  Once AI reaches human-level capabilities, we will be able to use it to improve itself in a self-referential way. I personally believe that if we can reach AGI, we will reach ASI shortly, maybe a few years after that.

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  Anthony Aguirre

  Physicist; Future of Life cofounder

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  votes For and says:

  The development of full artificial general intelligence – what we will call here AI that is "outside the Gates" – would be a fundamental shift in the nature of the world: by its very nature it means adding a new species of intelligence to Earth with ...

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  Tom Davidson

  AI governance researcher

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  votes For and says:

  So the the prototypical situation I'm imagining here is you know there's a kind of one ai project, which is you know somewhat ahead of the others, and maybe it it goes through intelligence explosion, whereas which by which I mean kind of AI can autom...

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  Nick Bostrom

  Philosopher; 'Superintelligence' author; FHI founder

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  votes For and says:

  once we have full AGI, super intelligence might be quite close on the heels of that.

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  Leopold Aschenbrenner

  AI investor; former OpenAI researcher

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  votes For and says:

  As the race to AGI intensifies, the national security state will get involved. The USG will wake from its slumber, and by 27/28 we’ll get some form of government AGI project. No startup can handle superintelligence. Somewhere in a SCIF, the endgame w...

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  Yoshua Bengio

  AI Pioneer, Turing Award winner

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  votes For and says:

  Moreover, frontier AI companies are seeking to develop AI with a specific skill that could very well unlock all others and turbocharge advances: AIs with the ability to advance research in AI. An AI system that would be as capable at AI research as t...

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  Ben Goertzel

  SingularityNET founder; AGI researcher

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  votes For and says:

  My own view is once you get to human-level AGI, within a few years you could get a radically superhuman AGI — unless the AGI threatens to throttle its own development out of its own conservatism. I think once an AGI can introspect its own mind, then ...

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  David J. Chalmers

  Philosopher of mind, consciousness and AI

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  votes For and says:

  If there is AI, then there will be AI+ [...] Soon after we have produced a human-level AI, we will produce an even more intelligent AI.

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  Jack Clark

  Anthropic co-founder and Head of Public Benefit

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  votes For and says:

  What I'm looking at is a technological trend where, if anything, the speed will accelerate further. [...] My prediction is by the end of 2028, it's more likely than not that we have an AI system where you would be able to say to it: 'Make a better ve...

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  Ajeya Cotra

  AI safety researcher; senior research analyst at Open Philanthropy

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  votes For and says:

  AI R&D is fully automated in the middle of a year and this kicks off a rapid intelligence explosion that leads to very broadly superhuman AI.

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  Tristan Harris

  Center for Humane Technology cofounder

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  votes For and says:

  We are extremely close to recursive self-improvement right now. The companies, I think, are planning to do this in the next 12 months. The asteroid is coming for Earth.

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  Jared Kaplan

  Anthropic chief scientist

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  votes For and says:

  If you imagine you create this process where you have an AI that is smarter than you, or about as smart as you, it’s [then] making an AI that’s much smarter. It’s going to enlist that AI help to make an AI smarter than that. It sounds like a kind of ...

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  Dario Amodei

  CEO at Anthropic

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  votes For and says:

  I don’t know exactly when it’ll come, I don’t know if it’ll be 2027. I think it’s plausible it could be longer than that. I don’t think it will be a whole bunch longer than that when AI systems are better than humans at almost everything. Better than...

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  Stephen Hawking

  Theoretical physicist, cosmologist, and author

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  votes For and says:

  Once humans develop artificial intelligence it would take off on its own,[...] Humans [...] couldn't compete and would be superseded.

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  Eliezer Yudkowsky

  AI researcher and writer

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  votes For and says:

  From our perspective, an AI will either be so slow as to be bottlenecked, or so fast as to be FOOM. [...] 'AI go FOOM'.

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  Demis Hassabis

  Nobel laureate, AI Researcher and CEO of DeepMind

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  votes For and says:

  We are standing in the foothills of the singularity. [...] I think what we're seeing is soft self-improvement, in the sense of these coding agents are making engineers much more productive.

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  Will MacAskill

  Philosopher; effective altruism cofounder; researcher at Forethought Centre for AI Strategy

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  votes For and says:

  Another possibility, if there's a large enough intelligence explosion, is that the first project to build AGI organically becomes a de facto world government. This possibility is worth taking pretty seriously, given the stakes and the fact that an in...

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  Elon Musk

  Founder of SpaceX, cofounder of Tesla, SolarCity & PayPal

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  votes For and says:

  We might have AI that is smarter than any human by end of this year, and no later than next year. And probably 2030 or 2031 -- 5 years from now -- AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively. [...] I said years ago that humans are just the '...

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  Eric Schmidt

  Former Google CEO; tech investor

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  votes For and says:

  So what happens when this thing starts to scale? Well, a lot. One way to say this is that within three to five years we'll have what is called general intelligence AGI, which can be defined as a system that is as smart as the smartest mathematician, ...

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  Ben Southwood

  AI economist and commentator

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  votes For and says:

  Because post-superintelligence abundance will be so great, agreements to share power and benefits should strongly be in the leader’s national self-interest: as we noted in the section on abundance, having only 80% of a very large pie is much more des...

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  Leopold Aschenbrenner

  AI investor and policy analyst

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  votes For and says:

  On the current course, the leading Chinese AGI labs won’t be in Beijing or Shanghai—they’ll be in San Francisco and London. In a few years, it will be clear that the AGI secrets are the United States’ most important national defense secrets—deserving...

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  I. J. Good

  British statistician; Turing collaborator

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  votes For and says:

  The survival of man depends on the early construction of an ultra-intelligent machine. In order to design an ultraintelligent machine we need to understand more about the human brain or human thought or both. In the following pages an attempt is made...

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  Spencer Greenberg 🔍

  A psychology researcher/mathematician/entrepreneur. I tweet about psychology, society, rationality, science, and philosophy. My book: https://t.co/qd3iRl7q1X

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  votes For and says:

  Example 1: self-play. AI is not just human level at chess, it far exceeds human level because of self-play. Example 2: aggregation of peak performance. No human can get all math Olympiad problems right; but an A.I. can be trained on the correct an...

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Against (7)

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  Cory Doctorow

  Author and digital rights activist

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  votes Against and says:

  Throwing more words and GPUs into the word-guessing program won't make it sentient. [...] one of our mares gives birth to a locomotive.

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  Tim Dettmers

  Machine learning researcher

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  votes Against and says:

  The concept of superintelligence is built on a flawed premise. The idea is that once you have an intelligence that is as good or better than humans — in other words, AGI — then that intelligence can improve itself, leading to a runaway effect. This i...

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  Sam Altman

  CEO at OpenAI

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  votes Against and says:

  But then there is a long continuation from what we call AGI to what we call Superintelligence.

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  Ramez Naam

  Science author and futurist

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  votes Against and says:

  We can see this more directly. There are already entities with vastly greater than human intelligence working on the problem of augmenting their own intelligence. A great many, in fact. We call them corporations. And while we may have a variety of th...

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  Mustafa Suleyman

  Microsoft AI CEO; author

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  votes Against and says:

  It depends on your definition of AGI, right? AGI isn’t the singularity. The singularity is an exponentially recursive self-improving system that very rapidly accelerates far beyond anything that might look like human intelligence. To me, AGI is a ge...

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  Gary Marcus

  Professor of Psychology and Neural Science

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  votes Against and says:

  Plot the same improvements on a linear y-axis and you get steady incremental gains, impressive but not the hockey stick that triggered the panic. [...] We don't have evidence that Mythos is actually an important step towards broad superintelligence.

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  Yann LeCun

  Computer scientist, AI researcher

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  votes Against and says:

  There is no such thing as an intelligence explosion. There is no reason AI should become in control just because it is more capable.

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