AGI could quickly lead to superintelligence

Example 1: self-play. AI is not just human level at chess, it far exceeds human level because of self-play. Example 2: aggregation of peak performance. No human can get all math Olympiad problems right; but an A.I. can be trained on the correct an... more AI Verified source

Our main focus is to build truly recursive, self-improving superintelligence at scale, which means that the entire process of ideation, implementation, and validation of research ideas would be automatic. AI Verified source (2026)

In my mind, I thought it [artificial superintelligence] was coming in four years instead of 10 years. Now, I say it's coming in the next two years. AI Verified source (2026)

We are standing in the foothills of the singularity. [...] I think what we're seeing is soft self-improvement, in the sense of these coding agents are making engineers much more productive. AI Verified source (2026) < 1 of 2 >

This is very arbitrary, obviously, but I feel like there's at least a reasonable chance that 2026 Q1 will be looked back upon as the first quarter of the singularity. [...] There's been a phase transition in 2025. AI Verified source (2026)

My prediction is by the end of 2028, it's more likely than not that we have an AI system where you would be able to say to it: 'Make a better version of yourself.' And it just goes off and does that completely autonomously. [...] What I'm looking at ... more AI Verified source (2026)

AI R&D is fully automated in the middle of a year and this kicks off a rapid intelligence explosion that leads to very broadly superhuman AI. AI Verified source (2026)

We are making these things, they're getting smarter all the time. And they will become much smarter than us. [...] [Digital intelligences are] billions of times better at sharing information than we are – not twice as good, billions of times better –... more AI Verified source (2026)

We might have AI that is smarter than any human by end of this year, and no later than next year. And probably 2030 or 2031 -- 5 years from now -- AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively. [...] I said years ago that humans are just the '... more AI Verified source (2026)

There is no upper limit on how intelligent AIs will get or on how good robots will get, and I believe the advances will not plateau before exceeding human levels. AI Verified source (2026)

Once AI reaches human-level capabilities, we will be able to use it to improve itself in a self-referential way. I personally believe that if we can reach AGI, we will reach ASI shortly, maybe a few years after that. AI Verified source (2025)

The development of full artificial general intelligence – what we will call here AI that is "outside the Gates" – would be a fundamental shift in the nature of the world: by its very nature it means adding a new species of intelligence to Earth with ... more AI Verified source (2025)

So what happens when this thing starts to scale? Well, a lot. One way to say this is that within three to five years we'll have what is called general intelligence AGI, which can be defined as a system that is as smart as the smartest mathematician, ... more AI Verified source (2025)

If you imagine you create this process where you have an AI that is smarter than you, or about as smart as you, it’s [then] making an AI that’s much smarter. It’s going to enlist that AI help to make an AI smarter than that. It sounds like a kind of ... more AI Verified source (2025)

once we have full AGI, super intelligence might be quite close on the heels of that. AI Unverifiable source (2025)

Moreover, frontier AI companies are seeking to develop AI with a specific skill that could very well unlock all others and turbocharge advances: AIs with the ability to advance research in AI. An AI system that would be as capable at AI research as t... more AI Verified source (2024)

My own view is once you get to human-level AGI, within a few years you could get a radically superhuman AGI — unless the AGI threatens to throttle its own development out of its own conservatism. I think once an AGI can introspect its own mind, then ... more AI Verified source (2024)

AI progress won’t stop at human-level. Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, compressing a decade of algorithmic progress (5+ OOMs) into 1 year. We would rapidly go from human-level to vastly superhuman AI systems. The power—and th... more AI Verified source (2024)

It might take two weeks or two days or two hours or two minutes. [...] It’s very appropriate to call this an “intelligence explosion”. AI Unverifiable source (2022)

So we’ve already gone from “mere human intelligence” to “human with all knowledge, photographic memory, lightning calculations, and solves problems a hundred times faster than anyone else.” This suggests that “merely human level intelligence” isn’t m... more AI Verified source (2015)

Once humans develop artificial intelligence it would take off on its own,[...] Humans [...] couldn't compete and would be superseded. AI Verified source (2014)

If there is AI, then there will be AI+ [...] Soon after we have produced a human-level AI, we will produce an even more intelligent AI. AI Verified source (2010)

From our perspective, an AI will either be so slow as to be bottlenecked, or so fast as to be FOOM. [...] 'AI go FOOM'. AI Unverifiable source (2008)

an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would [...] be an 'intelligence explosion,' and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. AI Verified source (1965)

Until some company or scientist says ‘Here’s the proof! We can definitely have a safety mechanism that can scale to any level of intelligence,’ I don’t think we should be developing those general superintelligences. We can get most of the benefits w... more AI Verified source (2024)

Plot the same improvements on a linear y-axis and you get steady incremental gains, impressive but not the hockey stick that triggered the panic. [...] We don't have evidence that Mythos is actually an important step towards broad superintelligence. AI Verified source (2026)

For the last-invention story to hold, people would have to become unnecessary even as partners or supervisors to AIs. [...] We would need a world where practical know-how is fully transferable through digital channels and where responsibility can be ... more AI Verified source (2026)

The concept of superintelligence is built on a flawed premise. The idea is that once you have an intelligence that is as good or better than humans — in other words, AGI — then that intelligence can improve itself, leading to a runaway effect. This i... more AI Verified source (2025)

There is no such thing as an intelligence explosion. There is no reason AI should become in control just because it is more capable. AI Unverifiable source (2025)

Two “extreme” positions both seem false to me. First, you might think that the world would be instantly transformed on the scale of seconds or days (“the Singularity”), as superior intelligence builds on itself and solves every possible scientific, e... more AI Verified source (2024)

It depends on your definition of AGI, right? AGI isn’t the singularity. The singularity is an exponentially recursive self-improving system that very rapidly accelerates far beyond anything that might look like human intelligence. To me, AGI is a ge... more AI Verified source (2024)

On our current trajectory, we believe we may be only a couple of years away from early versions of true superintelligence. Of course, we could be wrong, but I think it really bears serious consideration. [...] A superintelligence, at some point on it... more AI Verified source (2026) < 1 of 2 >

I expect “slow takeoff,” which we could operationalize as the economy doubling over some 4 year interval before it doubles over any 1 year interval. AI Unverifiable source (2018)

There’s also a lot of hype, that AI will create evil robots with super-intelligence. That’s an unnecessary distraction. Those of us on the frontline shipping code, we’re excited by AI, but we don’t see a realistic path for our software to become sen... more AI Unverifiable source (2015)

We can see this more directly. There are already entities with vastly greater than human intelligence working on the problem of augmenting their own intelligence. A great many, in fact. We call them corporations. And while we may have a variety of th... more AI Verified source (2015)

I don’t think a sudden (“foom”) takeover by a super intelligent computer is likely. AI Unverifiable source (2014)