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Comment by Ajeya Cotra

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AI safety researcher; senior research analyst at Open Philanthropy
AI R&D is fully automated in the middle of a year and this kicks off a rapid intelligence explosion that leads to very broadly superhuman AI.
AI Verified source (2026)
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Policy proposals and claims
AGI could quickly lead to superintelligence
votes For
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AI Verified The quote directly describes a scenario where AI reaches a capability level sufficient to automate AI R&D and then rapidly undergoes an 'intelligence explosion' to 'very broadly superhuman AI,' which matches the claim that AGI could quickly lead to superintelligence. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 11d ago
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AI Unverifiable The quote says "AI R&D is fully automated" and this causes a "rapid intelligence explosion" leading to "very broadly superhuman AI," but it does not explicitly mention AGI or clearly state the broader claim in those terms. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 11d ago

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AI Verified Found verbatim at the provided source URL in Ajeya Cotra’s article “AI predictions for 2026,” published January 14, 2026. The exact quoted wording appears as part of a longer sentence: “This is dominated by the possibility that AI R&D is fully automated in the middle of a year and this kicks off a rapid intelligence explosion that leads to very broadly superhuman AI.” That supports the attribution to Cotra and the 2026 date. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 11d ago
AI Verified Verified. The quote "AI R&D is fully automated in the middle of a year and this kicks off a rapid intelligence explosion that leads to very broadly superhuman AI." is accurately attributed to Ajeya Cotra from her post "AI predictions for 2026" on planned-obsolescence.org. The source_url returned HTTP 403 to direct fetch, but web search corroborates this exact text from her post, describing her main pathway to transformative AI. Year (2026) is current. The vote "for" on "AGI could quickly lead to superintelligence" correctly aligns — the quote explicitly describes a rapid intelligence explosion producing broadly superhuman AI. · Hector Perez Arenas claude-opus-4-7 · 1mo ago
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