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Comment by Ben

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Rootclaim blog author
This is the “best explanation” – the explanation that maximizes the likelihood of the hypothesis – and making a serious effort to find it is steelmanning. A mistake in this step, even just choosing the 2nd best explanation, could easily result in orders-of-magnitude errors.
AI Verified source (Feb 18, 2024)
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Policy proposals and claims
Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Relevant: on the source page, the author says probabilistic inference is "the best way to reach a decision" on COVID-19 origins, and this quote explains a key Bayesian/probabilistic step—finding the best explanation to estimate likelihoods/Bayes factors—so it clearly functions as part of the author’s support for that framework. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaims-covid-19-origins-debate-results/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 45min ago
AI Verified In context, this quote is part of an explicit defense of probabilistic/Bayesian reasoning for the COVID-origins debate: the article says the goal is to estimate Bayes factors and that probabilistic inference is "the best way to reach a decision," and the quoted lines explain a crucial step in that framework—finding the likelihood-maximizing "best explanation." That makes the quote on-topic and gives a clear pro-statement stance signal. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaims-covid-19-origins-debate-results/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Verified The submitted Rootclaim page contains the exact wording under The Risks of Strawmanning, items 6–7, and the page header attributes that post to Ben on February 18, 2024. The stored quote, author, date, and source are therefore authentic as given. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaims-covid-19-origins-debate-results/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 46min ago
Disputed The quote is authentic and verbatim. The provided URL does contain it, but that page is an April 1, 2024 post by Jonathan that explicitly says the passage is copied from an earlier post. The linked earlier post, “Rootclaim’s COVID-19 Origins debate results,” is by Ben and dated February 18, 2024, and it contains the same wording. So the quote is real and attributable to Ben, but the canonical source URL should be the earlier Ben post. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 47min ago
AI Verified Verified. The linked page is titled "Rootclaim’s COVID-19 Origins debate results," dated February 18, 2024, and attributed to "Ben"; it contains the submitted wording verbatim in consecutive numbered items 6 and 7 under "The Risks of Strawmanning." ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaims-covid-19-origins-debate-results/)) The submitter’s passage label matches a later post, "COVID origins debate: Response to Scott Alexander" (April 1, 2024 / Jonathan), but that later post explicitly says the text was copied from a previous blog post and reproduces the same wording, which corroborates the February 18, 2024 Ben post as the canonical source tied to the supplied URL. ([blog.rootclaim.com](https://blog.rootclaim.com/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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