YouCongress
Explore About Sign up

Comment by Peter Miller

Human avatar
COVID-19 origins researcher and Rootclaim debate participant
Which of those 2 bayesian analysis is correct? The answer depends entirely on the quality of the data analysis, and has nothing to do with that final step where you just multiply a few numbers together to get the answer.
AI Verified (Feb 4, 2025)
Source:
Peter Miller, comment on Andrew Gelman, "What do I think of this Bayesian analysis of the origins of covid?", Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, February 4, 2025.
Like Share on X 3mo ago

Policy proposals and claims

Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
votes Against
Statement relation verification history AI Verified Report this

Statement relation comments

AI Verified Relevant: in context, Miller says opposite Bayesian analyses can be produced from the same data and that the result turns on the underlying data analysis, not the Bayesian 'multiply a few numbers' step. He later contrasts Bayesian fraction-multiplying with high-quality analysis of the evidence, so the quote is directly about whether Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling COVID origins and makes a definite stance substantially more likely. ([statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/03/bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 3mo ago
Vote inference verification history Latest opinion AI Verified Report this

Vote answer comments

AI Verified Against: he says the key issue 'depends entirely on the quality of the data analysis' and 'has nothing to do with that final step where you just multiply a few numbers together,' so he is rejecting the idea that the Bayesian calculation itself is the right way to settle COVID origins. In context, he further contrasts scientists' 'high quality analyses of the data' with 'guessing at fractions and multiplying them together,' reinforcing that inference. ([statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/03/bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 3mo ago

Quote authenticity verification history

Report this

Quote authenticity comments

AI Verified The source URL is fetchable and contains a comment attributed to Peter Miller on February 4, 2025; the exact quoted text appears verbatim in that comment, so the quote, author, date, and source URL all match. ([statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/03/bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 3mo ago
replying to Peter Miller

Other opinions from Peter Miller

See all

Other authors to follow

Jonathan Jonathan Rootclaim blog author Andrew T. Levin Andrew T. Levin Economist, Professor at Dartmouth College and NBER Research Associate OpenAI OpenAI AI research organization Scott Alexander Scott Alexander Author and psychiatrist Yoshua Bengio Yoshua Bengio AI Pioneer, Turing Award winner Demis Hassabis Demis Hassabis Nobel laureate, AI Researcher and CEO of DeepMind Anthropic Anthropic AI safety research company Richard H. Ebright Richard H. Ebright Molecular biologist, Rutgers University; Board of Governors Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biology Chris Lehane Chris Lehane OpenAI chief global affairs officer