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Comment by Joshua

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Statistical Modeling blog commenter on probability, expertise, and COVID-19 origins
But I don’t see how you can do that, and lay claim to a probabilistic assessment, without even attempting to quantify the probabilities that only the experts you agree with are trustworthy (stars even!) while the majority of scientists with relevant expertise are just remarkably wrong (and unwilling to admit it, and I guess lying about what they actually believe).
AI Verified (Feb 5, 2025)
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Joshua, comment on Andrew Gelman, "What do I think of this Bayesian analysis of the origins of covid?", Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, February 5, 2025.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Relevant: in context, Joshua is criticizing the COVID-origins Bayesian/probabilistic analysis itself, arguing that one cannot credibly make such an assessment without accounting for the probability that the majority of relevant experts are wrong. That directly bears on whether Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the origins question, and it strongly signals opposition rather than a merely adjacent concern. ([statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/03/bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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AI Verified Joshua is attacking the legitimacy of this kind of Bayesian/probabilistic treatment, saying he does not see how one can "lay claim to a probabilistic assessment" without quantifying the chance that the favored experts are right while the majority of relevant experts are wrong. In the source thread about whether a Bayesian COVID-origins analysis is sound, that strongly implies opposition to Bayesian analysis as the right framework for settling the question, even if his criticism is aimed at this use of it rather than Bayes in the abstract. ([statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/03/bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago

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AI Verified The source URL is fetchable and contains a comment by “Joshua” posted on February 5, 2025 (3:40 pm) with the exact quoted sentence, so the quote is real, verbatim, and correctly attributed to Joshua. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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