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Comment by Martin
Substack commenter on Bayesian likelihood ratios and COVID-19 origins
Thanks for the great analysis! One element that I don’t find entirely convincing is the part about considering the uncertainty in the log of the prior odds, e.g. assuming a 3-df-t-distribution with an SD of 2.3. What is missing is an upper bound on the likelihood ratio. I think P0(ZW)/P0(LL)>100,000 is unjustifiable. But these absurd cases do not have a negligible weight in the t-distribution. My calculation is that the odds change from 300/1 to 1000/1 if the upper limit of P0(ZW)/P0(LL) is 100,000.AI Verified (Oct 20, 2024)
1h ago
Policy proposals and claims
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Statement relation comments
AI Verified
The quote is directly about a Bayesian treatment of COVID origins: on the comments page it responds to an article subtitled "Robust Bayesian analysis of Covid origins," and it specifically debates priors and likelihood ratios such as P0(ZW)/P0(LL), where the article defines ZW vs. LL as competing COVID-origin hypotheses and explains the Bayes-odds framework. Because the author praises the analysis and objects only to one modeling assumption, it strongly implies engagement with Bayesian analysis as the proper framework here rather than rejecting that framework outright. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability-v40/comments))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
Vote answer comments
AI Verified
For — the author says "Thanks for the great analysis!" and then objects only to one modeling choice about Bayesian priors/likelihood ratios, offering his own Bayesian recalculation. That strongly implies acceptance of Bayesian analysis as the framework here, even if the quote does not explicitly defend the stronger word "right" or the idea of fully "settling" the question. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability-v40/comments))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
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AI Verified
The source URL is fetchable, and its comments page for “An Inconvenient Probability V4.5” shows a comment by Martin dated Oct 20, 2024 containing the quoted text verbatim. Martin’s Substack profile also shows the display name “Martin” (handle @martin8374), supporting the attribution. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability-v40/comments))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 1h ago
replying to Martin