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Comment by yrimon

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LessWrong commenter on Bayesian reasoning and information quality
To summarize, the information as to whether you are confident or unsure of your belief is in the shape of your probability distribution (but not in the number 80%) and if you are unsure you often have a cheap and valuable option to learn more.
AI Verified (Jan 2026)
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yrimon, comment on viking_math, "The false confidence theorem and Bayesian reasoning," LessWrong, January 2026.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The LessWrong thread contains a comment attributed to yrimon with this sentence verbatim at lines 303–309, and the comments index repeats the same excerpt under yrimon. The fetched snapshots expose only a relative timestamp (6mo) rather than an exact day, but that is consistent with the stored month-year Jan 2026. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HjbsjnutKE9xbXBwz/the-false-confidence-theorem-and-bayesian-reasoning)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
replying to yrimon