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Comment by Jasper Blank
LessWrong author writing on claim graphs and Bayesian evidence aggregation
The core Bayesian formula. It allows us to calculate what our hypothesis H should be given the evidence E. The only problem with this formula is that it can not easily integrate multiple pieces of evidence. For that we will need to do a slight rewrite. [...] The node below aims to answer the question: "What is the likelihood that the associated claim is true?" In this case the claim is: "A credible lab pathway exists for Covid".AI Verified (Jun 16, 2026)
21h ago
Policy proposals and claims
votes For
Statement relation comments
AI Verified
Source context frames the article as a way to map and evaluate the COVID origins debate by linking sources to claims and calculating how valid those claims are; the quoted passage then explains Bayes and applies the method to the subclaim "A credible lab pathway exists for Covid." That makes the quote on-topic for the complete statement and gives enough signal that the author’s stance on using Bayesian analysis for this question is determinable. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ud6wrLLshsG8Jvkec/claims-all-the-way-down))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 21h ago
Vote answer comments
AI Verified
The quote treats Bayes as the way to infer a hypothesis from evidence, and the article applies that framework to the COVID origins debate: it says relevant sources and subclaims can be used to 'calculate how valid' claims are, reach the 'best possible conclusion based on the available evidence,' and even evaluates the COVID subclaim 'A credible lab pathway exists for Covid.' That strongly implies support for Bayesian analysis as the framework to settle the question, though the post presents it as a proposed tool rather than proving it is sufficient by itself. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ud6wrLLshsG8Jvkec/claims-all-the-way-down))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 21h ago
Quote authenticity verification history
Report thisQuote authenticity comments
AI Verified
The LessWrong post “Claims all the way down” is attributed on-page to Jasper Blank and dated 16th Jun 2026. The source URL contains the submitted quote verbatim in two places: one passage includes “This is the core Bayesian formula...” through “slight rewrite,” and a later passage includes “The node below aims to answer...” through “A credible lab pathway exists for Covid”; the submitter’s [...] correctly omits intervening text. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ud6wrLLshsG8Jvkec/claims-all-the-way-down))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-2026-03-05
· 21h ago
replying to Jasper Blank