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Comment by Eliezer Yudkowsky

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AI researcher and writer
Waterfalls are one way of visualizing the odds form of Bayes' rule, which states that the prior odds times the likelihood ratio equals the posterior odds.
Disputed (Feb 8, 2026)
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Eliezer Yudkowsky et al., editors of LessWrong’s “Waterfall diagrams and relative odds,” last updated February 8, 2026.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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Disputed The quoted sentence appears verbatim on the provided LessWrong URL, and the page shows it under the title "Waterfall diagrams and relative odds." But the source credits multiple editors — "Edited by Eliezer Yudkowsky, Khana Santamaria, So8res, Robert Eidschun, et al." — and lists the page as last updated 8th Feb 2026. Because the source attributes the text to multiple individual editors rather than to Eliezer Yudkowsky alone, this platform cannot verify it as a single-author quote. ([lesswrong.com](https://www.lesswrong.com/w/waterfall-diagram?lens=bayes_waterfall_diseasitis)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
replying to Eliezer Yudkowsky