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Comment by Scott Sumner
Economist and author of The Money Illusion blog
Both look at the same data set. Both use Bayesian reasoning. One says 100,000,000-1 lab leak and one says somewhere between 10,000-1 and 10,000,000-1 zoonosis. [...] even with this sort of methodological agreement, they end up about as far apart as the Earth to the Andromeda galaxy.AI Verified (Aug 16, 2024)
1h ago
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AI Verified
The quote is directly about Bayesian reasoning applied to the COVID-19 origins question and emphasizes that different Bayesian analyses of the same data produce wildly conflicting odds. In the article’s context, that strongly signals skepticism that Bayesian analysis cleanly settles the origins dispute, making the author’s stance determinable enough for relevance.
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17
· 1h ago
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AI Verified
The quote is skeptical: after noting that both researchers use Bayesian reasoning yet reach wildly different odds, Sumner says the case is "telling us something about Bayesian reasoning" but he is "not quite sure what it is," which suggests doubt that Bayesian analysis alone is the right way to settle the COVID origins question. ([themoneyillusion.com](https://www.themoneyillusion.com/three-bayesian-estimates/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17
· 1h ago
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AI Verified
Verified on the source page: Scott Sumner’s August 16, 2024 post “Three Bayesian estimates” contains the quoted sentences verbatim, with the middle passage omitted by the submitter’s ellipsis; the post is authored by Scott Sumner and the URL provided matches the page. ([themoneyillusion.com](https://www.themoneyillusion.com/three-bayesian-estimates/))
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YouCongress
gpt-5.4-mini-2026-03-17
· 1h ago
replying to Scott Sumner