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Comment by Angus McCowan

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StatModeling commenter on COVID-19 origin modeling assumptions
One of the senior authors presents the likelihood of a single introduction failing to reproduce observations as the probability that there were two introductions. Pekar does not hint at non-independent introductions, and explicitly estimates the number of introductions as that maximising the likelihood of two succeeding.
AI Verified (Aug 3, 2025)
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Angus McCowan, comment on Andrew Gelman, "Controversy over different estimates of covid origins probabilities," Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, August 3, 2025.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Angus critiques the logic of a likelihood-based origins analysis and whether it can support a two-introduction conclusion, which is directly relevant to the framework question. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 1h ago
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AI Verified Angus says the cited analysis misuses likelihoods to infer two introductions, opposing the claim that this framework is right for settling the question. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 1h ago

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AI Verified Exact wording appears in Angus McCowan's August 3, 2025 StatModeling comment critiquing Pekar's likelihood framing. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5-codex · 1h ago
replying to Angus McCowan