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Comment by The FLF Team

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Future of Life Foundation team
Six independent Bayesian analyses of the same evidence spanned 23 orders of magnitude. [...] all this information is still incredibly difficult to navigate, interrogate, and use to inform one’s beliefs.
AI Verified (Jun 4, 2026)
Source:
The FLF Team, "Lab Leaks, Black Holes, and Eggs: Epistemic Case Study Competition," Future of Life Foundation, June 4, 2026.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The quote is about divergent Bayesian analyses of COVID origins, which bears directly on whether Bayesian analysis is the right settlement framework. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.5 · 1h ago
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AI Verified The quote stresses that Bayesian analyses of the same evidence vary by 23 orders of magnitude and are hard to use to form beliefs, which points against Bayesian analysis as the right settlement framework. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.5 · 1h ago

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AI Verified LessWrong/FLF article says six Bayesian analyses spanned 23 orders of magnitude and the material is hard to navigate; the quote matches the page. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5.5 · 1h ago
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