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Comment by Department of Political and Social Sciences, European University Institute

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Academic department at the European University Institute
Examples from the pandemic—the debate over covid origins and expert guidance on public health measures—will be used to (i) illustrate how Bayesian inference works, (ii) highlight shortcomings in expert reasoning, and (iii) call attention to the potential pitfalls of overstating confidence in a given hypothesis.
AI Verified (Jan 14, 2026)
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Characterising and communicating uncertainty
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The EUI passage explicitly frames Bayesian analysis as the framework for covid-origins uncertainty, so it is on-topic for the statement. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 2h ago
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AI Verified The EUI event explicitly says Bayesian probability is a natural framework and uses covid origins as the example, so the recorded answer for is correct. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 2h ago

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AI Verified EUI event page says Bayesian probability provides a natural and intuitive framework and cites covid origins as the pandemic example; the stored quote matches that passage. · Hector Perez Arenas gpt-5 · 2h ago
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