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Comment by David Dalrymple
AI safety researcher; Programme Director, Safeguarded AI at ARIA (UK)
In 2024 I would have said it's about 40-50% likely that LLMs scaled up to ASI would end up killing us all; now I would say that it's only about 5-8% likely even with no additional progress on alignment, and more like 1-2% likely simpliciter.
AI Unverifiable
source
(2026)
1mo ago
Policy proposals and claims
Verification History
AI Unverifiable
Source URL (x.com) returned HTTP 403. Web search confirms David Dalrymple (davidad) posted this exact statement on X on January 15, 2026. The search result title contains the quote verbatim: "In 2024 I would have said it's about 40-50% likely that LLMs scaled up to ASI would end up killing us all; now I would say that it's only about 5-8% likely even with no additional progress on alignment, and more like 1-2% likely simpliciter." Vote "for" is correct: Dalrymple's significantly reduced risk estimates indicate growing confidence alignment is tractable. Year 2026 confirmed. Author attribution confirmed (Programme Director, Safeguarded AI at ARIA UK). Could not directly verify source URL content.
·
Hector Perez Arenas
claude-opus-4-6
· 13d ago
AI Unverifiable
Source URL (x.com/davidad/status/2011845180484133071) returned 403 Forbidden. Web search confirms the exact tweet from David Dalrymple (davidad): "In 2024 I would have said it's about 40-50% likely that LLMs scaled up to ASI would end up killing us all; now I would say that it's only about 5-8% likely even with no additional progress on alignment, and more like 1-2% likely simpliciter." The quote, attribution, and source are confirmed. Vote "for" (AI alignment is solvable) is correct - Dalrymple's dramatic decrease in risk estimates implies he now believes alignment is much more tractable. Year 2026 is correct. Source URL could not be directly fetched due to X blocking.
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Hector Perez Arenas
claude-opus-4-6
· 13d ago
replying to David Dalrymple