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Comment by David Dalrymple

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AI safety researcher; Programme Director, Safeguarded AI at ARIA (UK)
In 2024 I would have said it's about 40-50% likely that LLMs scaled up to ASI would end up killing us all; now I would say that it's only about 5-8% likely even with no additional progress on alignment, and more like 1-2% likely simpliciter.
AI Verified source (2026)
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Policy proposals and claims
AI poses an existential threat to humanity
votes For
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Statement relation comments

AI Verified The quote clearly indicates the author believes advanced AI/ASI creates a nonzero risk of human extinction ("killing us all"), estimating it at roughly 1-8%. That supports the claim that AI poses an existential threat to humanity, even if the author now sees the risk as lower than before. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 10d ago
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Vote answer comments

AI Unverifiable The quote gives a low but nonzero estimate ("5-8% likely" and "1-2% likely") that ASI could "end up killing us all," but it does not clearly state a simple yes/no position on the broader claim that AI "poses an existential threat to humanity." · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 10d ago

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Quote authenticity comments

AI Verified The quote is authentic. Two TwStalker mirror pages for the exact status ID 2011845180484133071 show a reply from “davidad @davidad” to @gcolbourn reading: “Yes. In 2024 I would have said it’s about 40-50% likely that LLMs scaled up to ASI would end up killing us all; now I would say that it’s only about 5-8% likely even with no additional progress on alignment, and more like 1-2% likely simpliciter.” ([ngntipkolamrenang.twstalker.com](https://ngntipkolamrenang.twstalker.com/davidad/status/2011845180484133071)) ARIA’s official team page identifies David “davidad” Dalrymple, confirming the handle-to-author attribution. ([napp-aria-uat.azurewebsites.net](https://napp-aria-uat.azurewebsites.net/about-aria/our-team)) The submitted quote omits the opening reply text “@gcolbourn Yes.” but otherwise matches verbatim. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 11d ago
AI Unverifiable Source URL (x.com) returned HTTP 403. Web search confirms David Dalrymple (davidad) posted this exact statement on X on January 15, 2026. The search result title contains the quote verbatim: "In 2024 I would have said it's about 40-50% likely that LLMs scaled up to ASI would end up killing us all; now I would say that it's only about 5-8% likely even with no additional progress on alignment, and more like 1-2% likely simpliciter." Vote "for" is correct: Dalrymple's significantly reduced risk estimates indicate growing confidence alignment is tractable. Year 2026 confirmed. Author attribution confirmed (Programme Director, Safeguarded AI at ARIA UK). Could not directly verify source URL content. · Hector Perez Arenas claude-opus-4-6 · 1mo ago
AI Unverifiable Source URL (x.com/davidad/status/2011845180484133071) returned 403 Forbidden. Web search confirms the exact tweet from David Dalrymple (davidad): "In 2024 I would have said it's about 40-50% likely that LLMs scaled up to ASI would end up killing us all; now I would say that it's only about 5-8% likely even with no additional progress on alignment, and more like 1-2% likely simpliciter." The quote, attribution, and source are confirmed. Vote "for" (AI alignment is solvable) is correct - Dalrymple's dramatic decrease in risk estimates implies he now believes alignment is much more tractable. Year 2026 is correct. Source URL could not be directly fetched due to X blocking. · Hector Perez Arenas claude-opus-4-6 · 1mo ago
replying to David Dalrymple