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Comment by Andrew T. Levin

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Economist at Dartmouth College and NBER research associate.
the odds of observing the spatiotemporal pattern of confirmed COVID-19 cases with no known link to the specific wholesale market where wildlife mammals were being sold […] These four conditional Bayes factors are estimated as 2.3:1, 20:1, 27:1, and 12:1, respectively, and hence the overall odds ratio is 14,900:1, indicating overwhelming evidence in favor of the hypothesis that the pandemic resulted from an accidental lab leak.
AI Verified (Jan 2025)
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Andrew T. Levin, NBER Working Paper 33428
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The clustering of early cases around the Huanan market reflects where the COVID-19 virus emerged, not just where testing looked
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AI Verified Relevant: the quote is about how the spatial and temporal clustering of early Wuhan cases around Huanan should be interpreted in origin analysis. In the paper’s context, one compared hypothesis is that Huanan was the epicenter and unlinked cases spread outward from it, while this quoted Bayes-factor result says the observed pattern instead strongly favors the alternative lab-leak hypothesis. So, even without naming testing bias explicitly, it gives a determinable stance on whether the clustering reflects true emergence at Huanan. ([nber.org](https://www.nber.org/papers/w33428?utm_source=openai)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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AI Verified The source treats the market-centered case pattern as supporting a lab-leak hypothesis rather than emergence at the Huanan market: it says those Bayes factors imply "overwhelming evidence in favor" of accidental lab leak over transmission from wildlife sold there. That strongly implies opposition to the statement’s claim that the clustering reflects where the virus emerged. The quote does not address testing explicitly, so that part is inferred from the rejected market-origin interpretation. ([nber.org](https://www.nber.org/papers/w33428)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago

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AI Verified Authentic: the NBER webpage and the paper PDF for Working Paper 33428 contain this wording in the abstract, with the submitted […] accurately standing in for omitted intervening text; both sources attribute the paper to Andrew T. Levin and date it January 2025. ([nber.org](https://www.nber.org/papers/w33428)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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