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The clustering of early cases around the Huanan market reflects where the COVID-19 virus emerged, not just where testing looked
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Results (275 votes):
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(275 votes)
For 134 (49%)
Abstain 31 (11%)
Against 110 (40%)
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For (132)
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Lab Leaks, Black Holes, and Eggs: Epistemic Case Study Competition2026 LessWrong/FLF case-study post comparing COVID-19 origins, black-hole, and egg debates.votes For and says:
Over 15 hours of structured argument, two smart people marshalled epidemiological data, viral genetics, Bayesian inference, and institutional analysis to reach opposite conclusions. Two expert judges ruled decisively for zoonosis. Six independent Bay...
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Juan LamaMolecular virologist and Chief Scientific Officer at RetroVirox Inc.votes For and says:
For context, the majority of virologists support the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 originated from a zoonotic spillover event that occurred in the vicinity of a wet market in Wuhan.
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LuminixAIAI research and market analysis publication producing reports on science, policy, and technology topicsvotes For and says:
The market geography is striking. Michael Worobey's team mapped 156 early December 2019 cases and found non-random clustering around the Huanan Seafood Market. Crucially, even cases with no known market link clustered geographically around it, not ar...
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Jon SinclairLuminix AI Strategic Researchvotes For and says:
Michael Worobey’s team at the University of Arizona mapped 156 early December 2019 COVID-19 cases in Wuhan using WHO data with estimated latitudes/longitudes, revealing a non-random clustering around the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market—specifically i...
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Scott AlexanderAuthor and psychiatristvotes For and says:
The new map provides extra evidence for natural origins, showing several previously-unmentioned infected animals and animal vendors. A natural interpretation is that one part of the CCP was trying to cover this up and another part accidentally releas...
more AI Verified source (Apr 23, 2026)DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly. -
Paul GriffinVirology Research Services blog authorvotes For and says:
SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19, led to a global pandemic from late 2019. Among the earliest confirmed patients, 49% had contact with the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan. A separate full-length genome study showed 96.2% sequence similarity to th...
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Bob Morris, MD, PhDEpidemiologist and writer at the University of Washington School of Public Health; author of The Blue Deathvotes For and says:DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Peter MillerCOVID-19 origins researcher and Rootclaim debate participantvotes For and says:
The problem is that argument doesn’t work — all evidence points to Covid starting around the same time the market outbreak started.
AI Verified source (Apr 6, 2026)DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly. -
Peter DaszakBritish-American zoologist and disease ecologistvotes For and says:
The first cases were associated with that market, not the lab. Detailed, sophisticated analysis supports that conclusion. Nothing supports the lab leak. The one—and only—piece of evidence for a lab leak is that there’s a lab in Wuhan.
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Benjamin MateusWorld Socialist Web Site reporter covering science, public health, and COVID-19 originsvotes For and says:
Spatial analyses prove that the earliest known cases in December 2019 clustered tightly around the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market—even when explicitly excluding patients who worked or shopped there. Extensive genetic and environmental evidence place...
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David GrimmScience journalist at Science covering biology and animal researchvotes For and says:
The maps identify specific stalls as having live animals infected with SARS-CoV-2 and vendors with antibodies to the virus - data China has never shared. Debarre finds the unconfirmed data credible because other details on the maps have been verified...
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Jon CohenScience senior correspondentvotes For and says:
Analysis of Wuhan market map suggests China has not disclosed some of the earliest infections in animals and people.
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votes For and says:
actual scientific evidence has consistently pointed to the likelihood that COVID originated from a spillover event at a market in Wuhan.
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Mark HonigsbaumMedical historian and author of Going Viral, writing on pandemic origins and infectious disease historyvotes For and says:
As a group of experts assigned by the World Health Organization to examine Covid’s origins pointed out in a study last month, most of the peer-reviewed scientific evidence supports the theory that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a natural bat reservoir from...
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Steven NovellaYale neurologist and science communicatorvotes For and says:
Clearly the first outbreak occurred in and around the Huanan seafood market. The authors point out that 60% of these early cases, occurring in late 2019, had a direct connection to that market. But the virus could have been imported to that market. [...
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Caducee.netFrench medical news site covering public health and biomedical researchvotes For and says:
Origines du SARS-CoV-2 : la zoonose reste l'hypothèse dominante, mais le dossier demeure incomplet. Le SAGO rappelle que les études sur le marché de Huanan constituent des éléments centraux du dossier scientifique.
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Davey SmithUCSD infectious-disease physicianvotes For and says:
Like all known human coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 originated from animals, most likely through wildlife sold at the Huanan Seafood Market, with bats serving as the deeper evolutionary reservoir. Since its emergence in humans, SARS-CoV-2 has repeatedly c...
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Jon CohenScience journalist, staff writer at Science magazinevotes For and says:
The WeChat post contained two maps of stalls at the Huanan market. As Débarre documents, three additional market maps have appeared after the 2021 WHO-China mission report.
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Richard R. ZitoIndependent researcher and author of a 2026 Medical Research Archives article on mathematical perspectives on COVID-19 spread and origins geography.votes For and says:
The COVID-19 pandemic began at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China. Examination of Figure 1 explains why this conclusion is so certain. Notice how half of the first 155 infections (December 2019) were clustered around the Huanan Market, with on...
more AI Verified source (Feb 28, 2026)DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly. -
Nandkumar M. KamatColumnist and writer on science and public affairsvotes For and says:
More than 60% of the earliest confirmed COVID-19 cases in December 2019 had a direct or indirect link to a single location: the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan. Environmental swabs taken from the market in January 2020 — after it had been closed and b...
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DongA ScienceKorean science news outletvotes For and says:
More than 60% of early patients in December 2019 were epidemiologically linked to the market, and the simultaneous identification of two genetic lineages supports the idea that the virus had evolved in animals before its introduction to the market.
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GaHyeon Jo.DongA Science reportervotes For and says:
The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was also identified as a major hub for early transmission and spread. More than 60% of early patients in December 2019 were epidemiologically linked to the market, and the simultaneous identification of tw...
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GaHyeon JoDongA Science reportervotes For and says:
The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was also identified as a major hub for early transmission and spread. More than 60% of early patients in December 2019 were epidemiologically linked to the market, and the simultaneous identification of tw...
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COVID's origins: what we do and don't knowNature Comment article on COVID-19 origins published February 24, 2026.votes For and says:
We also know that the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan had a significant role in the early transmission and initial spread of the virus. These animals could have been the intermediate hosts that brought the virus to the market, leading to the early cas...
more Unverified source (Feb 24, 2026) 1 of 23DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly. -
Kalyan VeeramachaneniMIT principal research scientist and leader of the Data-to-AI Lab.votes For and says:
This map not only saved lives, it changed our understanding of disease and created a model used regularly by epidemiologists ever since. On the right is a similar map, this time of the first cases of the Covid-19 epidemic. Based on WHO data and publi...
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GlobalRPHMedical reference and clinical education publication covering drugs, diseases, and public health topicsvotes For and says:
Early COVID-19 cases clustered around the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, with environmental sampling confirming virus presence in this location. Statistical analysis located the earliest human cases to specific market sections where...
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Nancy OgbonnaHealth writer covering infectious disease and clinical topics for GlobalRPH.votes For and says:
Early COVID-19 cases clustered around the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, with environmental sampling confirming virus presence in this location. Statistical analysis located the earliest human cases to specific market sections where...
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H. D. G. van WilligenAuthor of a 2026 University of Amsterdam thesis on COVID-19 sequelae and SARS-CoV-2 origins context.votes For and says:
However, peer-reviewed evidence supports the natural spillover theory. Firstly, a geospatial analysis found that early COVID-19 cases clustered around the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China, where environmental samples, including those from animal...
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Inside MedicineMedical journalism publication focused on public health and clinical policy.votes For and says:
She walks through the evidence pointing to the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, linked to the live animal trade, and emphasizes that the data we do have—environmental sampling, leaked Chinese CDC reports, WHO mission notes, and market maps—fit a zoono...
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Jeremy FaustEmergency physician and public health writer at Brigham and Women's Hospital; faculty member at Harvard Medical School.votes For and says:
While a lab leak is possible, there has never been a shred of credible evidence to support conclusions that this is how the pandemic started. Meanwhile, there is compelling evidence (bordering on proof), that illegal animals being sold in a market in...
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Jess SteierPublic health scientist and founder of Unbiased Sciencevotes For and says:
The truth? We don’t know for certain. While controversial, most scientists lean toward natural spillover based on viral genetics and epidemiology.
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Gustavo PalaciosMicrobiologist and coauthor of a 2025 Bulletin article on unresolved COVID-19 origins.votes For and says:
SAGO has clearly stated that no evidence suggests transmission of the virus to humans from frozen products at the Huanan Seafood Market, or any other market in Wuhan, in the critical late-2019 period.
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Tommaso CostaStatModeling commenter comparing market-origin and lab-origin likelihoodsvotes For and says:
Using a log-normal model to allow for a fourfold uncertainty in early counts, the data are about 10 times more likely under the market-origin scenario than the lab-origin scenario. My calculation was a deliberately simple likelihood comparison: given...
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Seth FinkelsteinStatModeling commenter on Wuhan geography and COVID-19 originsvotes For and says:
A key question for the lab-leak proponents is why the initial cases seem to cluster around the market, and there are no initial cases right around the lab itself. The market is across a river and a significant distance away from the lab, so these are...
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Lauren SchneiderMedical journalist at JAMA covering infectious diseases and public healthvotes For and says:
A recent World Health Organization report presents the newest findings on the origins of COVID-19 from the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO), an international body of more than 24 independent scientists. Drawing from...
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Gigi Kwik GronvallBiosecurity scholar at Johns Hopkins writing on biosafety, synthetic biology, and COVID-19 originsvotes For and says:
The report omits or discounts the significant body of evidence linking early COVID-19 cases to the Huanan Seafood Market and documented zoonotic spillovers from wildlife to humans in other coronaviruses. It also doesn’t acknowledge the evolutionary d...
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Gideon Meyerowitz-KatzEpidemiologist and science writer; author of the Health Nerd newsletter.votes For and says:
There is also abundant evidence that zoonosis is a likely explanation for how COVID-19 came about. The initial outbreak happened at the Huanan market in Wuhan, which had previously been reported to have conditions that were dangerous for viral transm...
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Maria Van KerkhoveInfectious-disease epidemiologist and WHO technical lead on COVID-19.votes For and says:
The Huanan seafood market in Wuhan, China, played a significant role in the early transmission and amplification of the virus, with 60% of early cases in December 2019 that could be traced to the market or [people who] lived in close proximity to the...
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Gigi GronvallBiosecurity expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Securityvotes For and says:
There’s overwhelming scientific evidence that COVID emerged from an animal market in Wuhan, which was miles away from a virology lab.
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FactCheck.orgFact-checking publication from the Annenberg Public Policy Center focused on misinformation and public claimsvotes For and says:
Evidence of zoonosis has surfaced. That's in addition to the epidemiology data, which show the earliest COVID-19 cases cluster around the market, even those without a known connection to the market.
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Kim BrunhuberCNN anchor and correspondent who reported on the White House's COVID lab-leak webpage.votes For and says:
The White House launched a new web page promoting the controversial COVID-19 lab leak theory. Global health organizations and U.S. federal agencies have investigated the origin of the COVID-19 virus, and nearly all have agreed the virus wasn't geneti...
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Adam KucharskiEpidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicinevotes For and says:
There is now substantial evidence pointing towards an animal origin for SARS-CoV-2.
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Ethan SiegelAstrophysicist and science writer who publishes Starts With A Bang! on Medium and Big Think.votes For and says:
For a very long time, after speaking with an enormous number of virologists and experts in related, adjacent fields — from the pandemic’s early days up through to the present — I’ve been someone who’s asserted that we can be certain that SARS-CoV-2, ...
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Lauren WeberWashington Post investigative reporter covering public health agencies and COVID-era trust.votes For and says:
There is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind the pandemic, was in any laboratory before the outbreak.
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Dan DiamondWashington Post reporter covering health policy and the White House's COVID origins webpage.votes For and says:
The White House on Friday launched a website deeming a laboratory leak as the "true" origin of the coronavirus, embracing a theory that remains divisive in the intelligence community and is opposed by many virologists.
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William JesterWriter for Rutgers-affiliated NJ ACTS covering health and translational-science topics.votes For and says:
Researchers strongly lean towards the theory that a person caught the virus from a wild animal at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China.
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Guillaume AchazFrench biologist who commented on DRASTIC's reasoning in the COVID-19 origins debate.votes For and says:
You get the feeling that they often start from the conclusion and develop their arguments backward.
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Maarten KeulemansDutch science journalist and columnist covering science, health, and COVID-19 origins.votes For and says:
Still, there’s plenty of reason why almost all epidemiologists and virologists I know believe that SARS-CoV-2 didn’t escape from the lab – but simply jumped to humans from animals on the ‘Huanen Wet Market’.
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Peter HotezPediatrician, vaccine scientist, and professor at Baylor College of Medicinevotes For and says:
We have at least a half-dozen scientific papers in the best scientific journals, including Cell and Science, which convincingly demonstrate how the SARS-2 virus emerged through zoonotic spillover.
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Lawrence O. GostinGlobal health law scholar at Georgetown University and coauthor of a NEJM article on COVID-19 origins evidencevotes For and says:
The clear preponderance of scientific evidence points clearly to the market, but scientists have an open mind and we will never know for sure.
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John MooreProfessor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medicinevotes For and says:
The early cases cluster around the wet market. [...] So that and the verified presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA samples in close proximity to animal DNA, is what we consider strong evidence. It's not proof. Proof is going to be extremely hard to obtain now,...
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Dominic DwyerMedical virologist at the University of Sydney and Westmead Hospital; member of the WHO international task force that investigated COVID-19 origins.votes For and says:
This paper has more evidence that supports the animal origin through the Huanan market.
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Alice HughesProfessor and group leader of Biodiversity Analytics of Terrestrial Ecosystems at the University of Hong Kong.votes For and says:
The species present, and other data (such as where positive samples were collected) corroborates previous suppositions on the potential role of competent hosts as a potential origin of SARS-CoV2, and the role of the market as an initial source of vir...
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Friedemann WeberVirologist at Justus Liebig University Giessen.votes For and says:
Die aktuelle Studie über die molekulargenetischen Untersuchungen des Huanan-Tiermarktes in Wuhan bestätigt und erweitert Ergebnisse aus vorherigen Arbeiten, die bereits darauf hinwiesen, dass dort der Ursprung der Covid-19-Pandemie zu finden ist.
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Christian DrostenVirologist and coauthor of the 2026 Nature commentary on COVID-19 originsvotes For and says:
Die Daten liefern ein weiteres Indiz für eine Herkunft des Virus aus Tieren und eine Verbindung des Ursprungs mit dem Huanan-Markt.
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Florence DébarreCNRS evolutionary biologist in Paris studying the origins and early spread of SARS-CoV-2.votes For and says:
We are seeing the DNA and RNA ghosts of these animals in the environmental samples, and some are in stalls where SARS-CoV-2 was found, too. This is what you would expect under a scenario in which there were infected animals in the market.
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Gabriel SpitzerEditor at KUOW.votes For and says:
Researchers had found genetic evidence that raccoon dogs, an exotic species known to be susceptible to the virus, were among the animals for sale at the wet market in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak was first identified. Now that research has been u...
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Maria ChengAssociated Press medical writer covering global health and science.votes For and says:
Scientists searching for the origins of Covid-19 have zeroed in on a short list of animals that possibly helped spread it to people, an effort they hope could allow them to trace the outbreak back to its source. Researchers analyzed genetic material ...
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Mark WoolhouseUniversity of Edinburgh infectious-disease professorvotes For and says:
It’s a significant finding and this does shift the dial more in favor of an animal origin, [...] But it is not conclusive.
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Alice HughesBiodiversity researcher and group leader of Biodiversity Analytics of Terrestrial Ecosystems at the University of Hong Kongvotes For and says:
The species present, and other data (such as where positive samples were collected) corroborates previous suppositions on the potential role of competent hosts as a potential origin of SARS-CoV2, and the role of the market as an initial source of vir...
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Michael WorobeyEvolutionary biologist, University of Arizona; researcher on the origins of pandemicsvotes For and says:
That is the biggest tell that this market wasn't just somewhere the virus eventually got to after spreading widely in Wuhan. There's very clear indications that that's where the jump successfully took place and human-to-human spread began.
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Kristian AndersenImmunologist and infectious disease researcher, Scripps Researchvotes For and says:
This paper adds another layer to the accumulating evidence that all points to the same scenario: that infected animals were introduced into the market in mid- to late November 2019, which sparked the pandemic.
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John P. MooreProfessor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medicine specializing in virology and viral immunology.votes For and says:
The zoonosis hypothesis proposes that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, was naturally transmitted from an animal to one or more humans in a so-called wet market in Wuhan selling fresh produce, meat, fish, and live animals.
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David A. SteinVirologist and coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Gregory A. SmithVirologist and coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Bert SemlerVirologist and coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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John PurdyVirologist and coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Julie PfeifferVirologist and coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Sallie PermarVirologist and coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Andrew PekoszVirologist and coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Christine O'ConnorVirologist and coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Janko Z. NikolichVirologist and coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Shan-Lu LiuOhio State University virologist and coauthor of commentary on SARS-CoV-2 laboratory-engineering claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Terence DermodyVirologist and coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Gary C. ChanVirologist and coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Arturo CasadevallPhysician-scientist and microbiologist at Johns Hopkins; coauthor of an ASM editorial on SARS-CoV-2 origin hypothesesvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Samuel K. CamposVirologist at the University of Arizona; coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Andrew J. BroadbentVirologist at the University of Surrey; coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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William J. BrittVirologist and professor emeritus at the University of Alabama at Birmingham; coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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David BloomVirologist and herpesvirus researcher; coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Bruce BanfieldVirologist at Queen's University; coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Felicia GoodrumVirologist at the University of Arizona; coauthor of an ASM commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins and lab-leak claimsvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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James C. AlwineVirologist and professor emeritus at the University of Pennsylvania; lead author of a Journal of Virology editorial on SARS-CoV-2 origin hypothesesvotes For and says:
The evidence supports the scenario that two distinct ancestral lineages of SARS-CoV-2 jumped from animals into humans, and that the Huanan Seafood Market in Hubei Province, China, where wild animals were routinely present and slaughtered, was the epi...
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Robert F. Garry, Jr.Professor of microbiology and immunologyvotes For and says:
Based on the current available evidence, I believe the most plausible origin of SARS-CoV-2 is spillover from a bat to an intermediate animal, and then to a human. I further believe the available evidence indicates that this spillover happened natural...
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Robert F. GarryVirologist, Tulane University School of Medicinevotes For and says:
They ignore or dismiss the abundant data pointing to the Huanan Market as the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. The significance of the fact that both SARS-CoV-2 lineage A and lineage B, as well as the DNA/RNA of raccoon dogs and civets were ...
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David L. RobertsonVirologist at the University of Glasgow specializing in viral genomics and evolutionvotes For and says:
There is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was man-made let alone that it escaped from a lab. All of the scientific data clearly points to a virus naturally circulating in horseshoe bats being transmitted to humans most probably via contact with infected l...
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Children's Hospital of PhiladelphiaPediatric academic medical center whose Vaccine Education Center publishes evidence-based vaccine and infectious-disease education.votes For and says:
There is now abundant evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was an animal-to-human spillover event that occurred in the western section of the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market that housed several live animals that were susceptible to the virus. Indeed, the early c...
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Paul OffitPediatrician, vaccine expert, CHOPvotes For and says:
The first cluster of cases were restricted to the western section of a market that was selling live animals susceptible to the virus, exactly where you would have expected a spillover event to occur. The estimated chance that this pattern had occurre...
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Smriti MallapatyNature news reporter covering science and health in the Asia-Pacific region.votes For and says:
Raccoon dogs, bamboo rats, palm civets: these are just some of the animals whose DNA has been found in swabs taken from the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, which has been linked to the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. The swabs also ...
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Michael ImperialeVirologist and professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Michigan.votes For and says:
The bulk of the scientific evidence at this point supports a natural exposure at the market.
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Katherine J. WuThe Atlantic staff writer.votes For and says:
A new analysis of genetic sequences collected from the market shows that raccoon dogs being illegally sold at the venue could have been carrying and possibly shedding the virus at the end of 2019. It’s some of the strongest support yet, experts told ...
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Seema LakdawalaVirologist at Emory University studying transmission and emergence of respiratory virusesvotes For and says:DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Paul G. AuwaerterInfectious-diseases physician; clinical director at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and former president of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.votes For and says:
Many virologists believe compelling evidence points to an animal origin. Specifically, they conclude that the coronavirus most likely jumped from a caged wild animal into people at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, where a vast COVID-19 outbreak b...
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Lori RobertsonFactCheck.org managing editor and writervotes For and says:
A paper published in Science in July 2022 analyzed the available evidence and implicated the wildlife trade and the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, as the site of the spillover. The earliest COVID-19 cases — even the ones with no kno...
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The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-22022 Science paper on SARS-CoV-2 molecular epidemiology and multiple zoonotic introductions.votes For and says:
This geographic proximity is consistent with a separate and subsequent origin of lineage A at the Huanan market in late-November 2019.
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Eddie HolmesEvolutionary virologist and University of Sydney professor specializing in virus evolution and emergence.votes For and says:
The Huanan market was the pandemic epicentre. From its origin there, the SARS-CoV-2 virus rapidly spread to other locations in Wuhan in early 2020 and then to the rest of the world.
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Edward C. HolmesEvolutionary virologist, University of Sydneyvotes For and says:
An analysis of the geographic locations of the earliest known COVID cases – dating to December 2019 – revealed a strong clustering around the Huanan market. This was true not only for people who worked at or visited the market, but also for those who...
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Angela RasmussenVirologist, Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization, University of Saskatchewanvotes For and says:
That is what the research heavily implies. We are not able to pinpoint the exact spillover event, the exact animal from which the virus crossed into humans, but there’s really no other explanation for what our analysis shows. And that is that there w...
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Jonathan E. PekarComputational biologist and first author on studies of SARS-CoV-2 molecular epidemiology and zoonotic originsvotes For and says:
We eventually figured out that it was better explained by multiple introductions than a single one. [...] This is so concordant with what we’ve seen with other epidemics that it makes any other scenario implausible, because you’d have to have an intr...
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Matthew T. AliotaVirologist at the University of Minnesota College of Veterinary Medicine studying emerging infectious diseasesvotes For and says:
Both of these two studies really provide compelling evidence for the natural origin hypothesis. Since sampling an animal that was at the market is impossible, this is maybe as close to a smoking gun as you could get.
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Raisa SantosHealth Policy Watch journalist covering global health and science policy.votes For and says:
The Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market in Wuhan, China, was the epicenter [...] The study, published by Science Magazine, reinforces the theory [...] “significantly closer” [...]
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Felicity NelsonScience and health journalistvotes For and says:
Wild animals sold on the southwestern side of the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan were the most likely source of the COVID-19 outbreak, a team of 18 international scientists claim. While there's still no 'smoking gun', it seems there is a mo...
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Judy Siegel-ItzkovichHealth and science journalist for The Jerusalem Postvotes For and says:
To test the hypothesis of the market as the pandemic’s epicenter, they obtained data from a range of sources. First, they used mapping tools to estimate the longitude and latitude locations of more than 150 of the earliest reported virus cases from D...
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Michaeleen DoucleffNPR science correspondent covering global health, disease outbreaks, and COVID-19 originsvotes For and says:
This week, an international team of scientists published two extensive, peer-reviewed papers in Science, offering the strongest evidence to date that the COVID-19 pandemic originated in animals at a market in Wuhan, China.
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Stephen A. GoldsteinVirologist and evolutionary biologist at the University of Utah studying viral emergence and SARS-CoV-2 originsvotes For and says:
We have convincingly shown that the wild animal sales at the Huanan Market in Wuhan are implicated in the first human cases of the disease.
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Joshua I. LevyPostdoctoral researcher in Kristian Andersen's lab at Scripps Research; coauthor of studies on SARS-CoV-2 originsvotes For and says:
There has been broad agreement that the Huanan market was a place where early spread of the virus was amplified, but what our data show is that the market was also the early epicenter and very likely the place of emergence.
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Marc A. SuchardComputational biologist and statistician at UCLA, coauthor of SARS-CoV-2 origins and molecular epidemiology studiesvotes For and says:
Rigorously combining all available evidence clearly demonstrates that the virus jumped at least twice from animals to humans at the Huanan market.
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University of Utah HealthUniversity of Utah academic medical center and health sciences newsroom.votes For and says:
An international team of 18 researchers, including a scientist at University of Utah Health, have determined that the earliest cases of COVID-19 in humans arose at a wholesale fish market in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. They linked these cases to ...
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Keith BrannonTulane University news writer covering science and health researchvotes For and says:
The global COVID-19 pandemic likely started in the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, according to a new study that looks at the distribution of the earliest known cases of SARS-CoV-2. The study was published simultaneously in the journ...
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Neal Evan CaminskyScience communicator and author for CoVaRR-Netvotes For and says:
This study pinpoints the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic as the southwest corner of the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China where live wild animals were sold. The authors show that the earliest known COVID-19 cases from December 2019 a...
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American Association for the Advancement of ScienceNonprofit scientific society and publisher of Sciencevotes For and says:
Two studies published in Science by Michael Worobey et al. and Jonathan Pekar et al. use complementary approaches – involving spatial and environmental analyses, as well as molecular analyses – to provide evidence that the Huanan market in Wuhan, Chi...
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Scott LaFeeUC San Diego science and health communications writervotes For and says:
In a pair of related studies, published July 26, 2022 online via First Release in Science, researchers at University of California San Diego, with colleagues on four continents, show that the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 was at the Huanan ...
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The Scripps Research InstituteBiomedical research institute in La Jolla, Californiavotes For and says:
The COVID-19-causing coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, likely first spread to humans from animals in two separate transmission events in a Wuhan market in late November 2019, according to a pair of analyses by international teams co-led by Scripps Research sc...
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Stuart NeilKing's College London virologistvotes For and says:
can't explain the data. We're now as sure as we can be, based on the fragmentary evidence we do have, that this was a spillover event that happened in the market.
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Banjot KaurScience journalist at The Wire Science covering COVID-19 origins and public healthvotes For and says:
The results of three studies indicate that the first human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus occurred in the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan.
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William HanageEvolutionary epidemiologist at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Healthvotes For and says:
They substantially move the needle on the origins in the direction of the market
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Jeremy KamilVirologist at Louisiana State University Health Shreveport studying viral pathogenesis and emerging virusesvotes For and says:
The studies don't exclude other hypotheses entirely. But they absolutely are pushing it toward an animal origin.
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Amy MaxmenNature journalist covering science, medicine, and public healthvotes For and says:
Scientists have released three studies that reveal intriguing new clues about how the COVID-19 pandemic started. Two of the reports trace the outbreak back to a massive market that sold live animals, among other goods, in Wuhan, China, and a third su...
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Katherine DillingerCNN health writer covering COVID-19 and public healthvotes For and says:
Two preprint studies posted Saturday offer further evidence that the coronavirus originated in animals and spread to humans in late 2019 at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China. One of the studies -- neither of which has been peer-reviewed or pu...
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Jason GaleBloomberg journalist covering health, medicine, and sciencevotes For and says:
Worobey’s research suggests the Huanan market was the source of the initial outbreak and not just where the SARS-CoV-2 virus was amplified in a super-spreading event.
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Daniel StolteScience writer and University of Arizona communications author covering COVID-19 origins researchvotes For and says:
Sleuthing through health records and genomic and epidemiologic data from the earliest days of COVID-19, Worobey pieced together a detailed picture of the first crucial events that spiraled into the global pandemic. Through methodical analysis, he pro...
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Rasmus NielsenProfessor of integrative biology and statistics at the University of California, Berkeley.votes For and says:
The report provided much more granular detail on early cases linked to the Huanan Market and importantly other wildlife markets in Wuhan. This is an inconvenient fact for many proponents of the ‘lab leak.’ Any theory on the origin of SARS-CoV-2 must ...
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Nandkumar M. KamatColumnist and writer on science and public affairsvotes For and says:
More than 60% of the earliest confirmed COVID-19 cases in December 2019 had a direct or indirect link to a single location: the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan. Environmental swabs taken from the market in January 2020 — after it had been closed and b...
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COVID's origins: what we do and don't knowNature Comment article on COVID-19 origins published February 24, 2026.votes For and says:
We also know that the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan had a significant role in the early transmission and initial spread of the virus. These animals could have been the intermediate hosts that brought the virus to the market, leading to the early cas...
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The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-22022 Science paper on SARS-CoV-2 molecular epidemiology and multiple zoonotic introductions.votes For and says:
This geographic proximity is consistent with a separate and subsequent origin of lineage A at the Huanan market in late-November 2019.
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The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-22022 Science paper on SARS-CoV-2 molecular epidemiology and multiple zoonotic introductions.votes For and says:
In a related study (39), we show that the two earliest lineage A cases are more closely positioned geographically to the Huanan market than expected compared with other COVID-19 cases in Wuhan in early 2020, despite having no known association with t...
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The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-22022 Science paper on SARS-CoV-2 molecular epidemiology and multiple zoonotic introductions.votes For and says:
The presence of potential animal reservoirs, coupled with the timing of the lineage B primary case and the geographic clustering of early cases around the Huanan market, support the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 lineage B jumped into humans at the Huana...
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The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-22022 Science paper on SARS-CoV-2 molecular epidemiology and multiple zoonotic introductions.votes For and says:
Through late-2019 the Huanan market sold animals that are known to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and capable of intra-species transmission.
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The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-22022 Science paper on SARS-CoV-2 molecular epidemiology and multiple zoonotic introductions.votes For and says:
The most probable explanation for the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into humans involves zoonotic jumps from as-yet undetermined, intermediate host animals at the Huanan market.
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The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-22022 Science paper on SARS-CoV-2 molecular epidemiology and multiple zoonotic introductions.votes For and says:
The earliest unambiguous case of COVID-19, with symptom onset on 10 December and hospitalization on 16 December, was a seafood vendor at the Huanan market.
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The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-22022 Science paper on SARS-CoV-2 molecular epidemiology and multiple zoonotic introductions.votes For and says:
The earliest lineage A genomes from humans lack a direct epidemiological connection to the Huanan market, but were sampled from individuals who lived or had recently stayed close to the market.
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Choi Won-wooChosun English industry reportervotes For and says:
The Chinese Huanan Seafood Market was an important hub for early spread.
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Abstain (31)
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Daniel EngberScience journalist and senior editor at The Atlanticabstains and says:
The origins of the coronavirus pandemic remain contested; the evidence is incomplete.
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Cory FranklinRetired intensive care physicianabstains and says:DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Renée DiRestaGeorgetown professor and Lawfare editorabstains and says:
The origins of COVID-19 remain uncertain. A lab-associated incident is plausible; so is natural spillover. China’s obstruction has made the truth harder to establish, and scientific opinions vary.
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Morgan StephensJournalist, Fact Check Team (Sinclair Broadcast Group)abstains and says:
The documents do not accuse Fauci of a crime, nor do they provide definitive proof supporting either the lab-leak theory or the natural-origin theory.
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Marc LipsitchEpidemiologist and professor at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Healthabstains and says:
The best way to understand this discussion is that there is no definitive evidence either way. Certainty in either direction is just an implausible reading of the evidence.
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Alan B FranklinUSDA wildlife scientistabstains and says:
The competing hypotheses on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 – the pathogen responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic – have been hotly debated in the scientific literature and popular media, especially with respect to the hypothesis that SARS-Cov-2 originated ...
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23 of the 27 original members of the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel PathogensWHO origins-panel coalitionabstains and says:
We also know that the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan had a significant role in the early transmission and initial spread of the virus. Metagenomic sequencing of environmental samples collected at the market has indicated that several wildlife species...
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COVID-19 Global Risk Assessment- Version 9WHO rapid risk assessmentabstains and says:
While available information is insufficient to definitively conclude the origins of SARS-CoV-2, the independent assessment of SARS-CoV-2 origins report (June 2025) published by the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO) r...
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Ibrahim C. HaznedarogluHematologist and academic physician; author of a 2026 review on laboratory and natural origin hypotheses of SARS-CoV-2abstains and says:
Analyses of the earliest documented COVID-19 cases suggest a significant spatial association with the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (HSM) in Wuhan. Multiple independent studies have reported that many of the earliest cases – particularly those with...
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David RelmanStanford microbiologist and biosecurity expert; advisor to the U.S. federal government on biological weapons threatsabstains and says:
Without China providing fundamental data, definitive conclusions remain impossible.
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Adolfo García-SastreVirologist and coauthor of a 2025 Bulletin article on unresolved COVID-19 origins.abstains and says:
Early viral genome sequences remain unreleased, and environmental data from Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Market were shared only after international researchers briefly gained access online.
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gecStatModeling commenter on uncertainty and COVID-19 originsabstains and says:
The arguments around covid origins seem largely to fall into an inference trap Andrew has termed premature collapse of the wavefunction. Rather than maintaining multiple hypotheses with different levels of credibility, there seems to be a desire to c...
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Tom InglesbyPublic health expert and director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Securityabstains and says:
It remains a priority to study the origins of COVID. While the evidence for accidental origin of COVID is not definitive, there is a substantial body of strong circumstantial evidence. US intelligence agencies remain divided. The WHO Director has sai...
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Lisa SchnirringScience and public health journalist at CIDRAP covering infectious diseases and outbreak policy.abstains and says:
An independent group that studied the origins of SARS-CoV-2 for the World Health Organization (WHO) published its full findings today, which said though most available and accessible scientific evidence supports a jump from animals to people, it can'...
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Tedros Adhanom GhebreyesusDirector-General of the World Health Organization (WHO)abstains and says:
As things stand, all hypotheses must remain on the table, including zoonotic spillover and lab leak.
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Jane QiuAward-winning independent science writer in Beijingabstains and says:
Both sides are gathering evidence to support their case, yet neither can fully rule out the possibility put forward by the other.
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Tom StaffordPsychologist and science writer at the University of Sheffieldabstains and says:
This is an area where we cannot be certain, and the lab leak hypothesis is possible but unlikely.
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Virginie CourtierFrench biologist who collaborated with Paris Group discussions on COVID-19 origins.abstains and says:
Several scientists thought that the origin of the coronavirus had not been sufficiently investigated.
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William AudureauLe Monde investigative reporter covering online influence and the COVID-19 origins debate.abstains and says:
The zoonosis hypothesis, postulating that it may have come from an animal in Wuhan's Huanan seafood market, continues to be considered the most likely by a large majority of scientists, even though there has never been definitive proof to support the...
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Kerry CullinanHealth Policy Watch founding editor and health journalistabstains and says:DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Jeffrey KlugerTIME editor and science journalistabstains and says:DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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David KlepperAssociated Press investigative reporter covering misinformation and public affairsabstains and says:
The agency continues to assess that both research-related and natural origin scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic remain plausible.
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Issam AhmedAFP journalist covering science and healthabstains and says:
Whether COVID-19 was unleashed by a laboratory mishap or spilled over from animals remains an enduring, fiercely contested mystery.
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Muddy Waters: The Origins of COVID-19 ReportCOVID-19 origins reportabstains and says:
The Huanan Seafood Market seemingly played a critical role in the early outbreak, but its exact role is unclear. [...] Whether the COVID-19 cases and positive environmental samples found at the Huanan Market represent the “epicenter” of the SARS-CoV-...
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Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 at the Huanan Seafood Market2023 Nature article on SARS-CoV-2 surveillance at the Huanan Seafood Market.abstains and says:
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019, emerged in December 2019. Its origins remain uncertain. It has been reported that a number of the early human cases of coronavirus disease ...
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Amesh AdaljaInfectious disease physician at Johns Hopkinsabstains and says:
I don’t think we have enough evidence to definitively identify the origin of COVID, [...] I think what is necessary is more information about early cases that occurred in 2019, to really understand the early days of COVID-19.
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Julian TangClinical virologist and honorary associate professor at the University of Leicester.abstains and says:
All he is saying in this Science article is that we need better, more comprehensive patient case and dated viral sequence data – at the time of first appearance of these viruses – to make this viral phylogenetic/evolutionary history approach more acc...
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Martin HibberdProfessor of Emerging Infectious Disease at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.abstains and says:
More work would need to be done to know how solid these findings are, particularly the accuracy and reasons for the sequence deletions, but it does look intriguing.
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Andrew PrestonReader in microbial pathogenesis at the University of Bathabstains and says:
The language of the paper is unusual, its contains a significant degree of supposition and conjecture, cites blog posts and appears to be pointing towards a deliberate cover up by Chinese authorities of early sequence data from Wuhan. However, this i...
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Nikolai PetrovskyProfessor of medicine and director of endocrinology at Flinders Medical Centre and Flinders University.abstains and says:
Ultimately, without any proper and thorough investigation having been conducted, the origins of COVID-19 remain a completely open question.
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Marion KoopmansDutch virologistabstains and says:
There are already clusters of identical viruses in two other provinces in China. There is some literature from outside of China, particularly in Europe, that is suggestive of earlier circulation, although the methodologies there really need some scru...
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Against (110)
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Josh ChristensonNew York Post Washington correspondent covering politics and investigationsvotes Against and says:
Dr. Anthony Fauci and other IC leaders “influenced” the CIA and others involved in COVID intelligence analyses to suppress evidence that the virus most likely resulted from a lab leak in China.
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Robert MoffitSenior research fellow in health policy at The Heritage Foundationvotes Against and says:
To this day, of course, proponents of a “natural origin” for COVID-19 have failed to identify any such animal host.
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Greg GlaserAttorney quoted on COVID-19 origins and post-pandemic accountabilityvotes Against and says:
The Gabbard documents are not the only evidence. There is a growing body of material showing that the intelligence community had information about a lab incident that was suppressed
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Michael NevradakisSenior reporter for The Defender and host of The Defender In-Depth on CHD.TVvotes Against and says:
Fauci’s subpoena comes just days after outgoing Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard released documents indicating that Fauci funded gain-of-function research that led to the development and subsequent leak of COVID-19 — and that he sought...
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Lewis KambInvestigative journalistvotes Against and says:
A newly declassified Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory assessment from May 2020 concluded that all of the conditions necessary for an accidental release of a laboratory-modified coronavirus were present at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Chin...
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Tulsi GabbardU.S. Director of National Intelligencevotes Against and says:
The COVID-19 pandemic caused tremendous hardship and pain for millions of our fellow Americans and for countless people around the world. After years of lies, censorship, and cover ups, the American people deserve transparency, truth, and accountabil...
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Office of the Director of National IntelligenceU.S. intelligence coordinating agencyvotes Against and says:
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard is releasing never-before-seen communications and documents exposing how Fauci worked with politicized career leadership in the Intelligence Community (IC) to suppress the truth about his actions, the v...
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Hudson InstituteWashington, D.C. policy institutevotes Against and says:
In The Code as Witness, which was published on June 9, Dr. Steven Quay shows how the genetic material of SARS-CoV-2 points directly to human engineering. He warns that irresponsible and unregulated gain-of-function research is accelerating, and that ...
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Paul D. ThackerInvestigative journalist and author of The DisInformation Chronicle.votes Against and says:
The origin of COVID-19 has sparked relentless debate since 2020. But if we truly follow the science, the evidence for a lab-based beginning is undeniable.
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Adam PackFox News politics reporter covering U.S. politics and congressional hearings.votes Against and says:
CIA whistleblower James Erdman III testified that the Biden administration buried analysis concluding a lab leak was the most likely origin of the COVID-19 pandemic in an explosive hearing on Wednesday.
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James Erdman IIICIA senior operations officervotes Against and says:
Intelligence community leaders and senior analysts downplayed the possibility that the COVID pandemic originated as a result of a lab incident. Motives are difficult to define given the scope of the DIGS review. Intentional or not, the IC's actions r...
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votes Against and says:
For years, the so-called lab leak hypothesis was labeled by top public health officials as a conspiracy theory or at least a fringe idea.
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James E. Erdman IIISenior Operations Officer at the Central Intelligence Agency and 2026 Senate COVID origins whistleblower witnessvotes Against and says:
Credible reporting does indicate that the pandemic may have begun in November 2019 in Wuhan, China and was the product of a lab incident.
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Liz LyonsCIA spokespersonvotes Against and says:
As the CIA has already assessed, COVID-19 most likely originated from a lab leak, and efforts to undermine that conclusion are disingenuous.
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Rand PaulU.S. senator from Kentuckyvotes Against and says:
The witness will testify that CIA scientific analysts repeatedly concluded that a laboratory leak was the most likely origin of COVID-19 — and that those conclusions were buried, softened, or withheld from Congress while the public was told to trust ...
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Josh HawleyU.S. Senator for Missourivotes Against and says:
Number three, the conclusion, so-called, they released to the public are false. If that is not a cover-up, I don’t know what is.
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Biosafety NowOrganization focused on biosafety and pandemic origin risksvotes Against and says:
As to the Huanan market, maybe it functioned like a superspreader event but there is no evidence that it was crucial for the virus to jump from of an as yet unidentified intermediate host to humans.
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Tom CottonU.S. Senator from Arkansas (Republican); member of the Senate Intelligence and Armed Services Committeesvotes Against and says:
Pointing out that COVID leaked from a lab in Communist China was never a conspiracy, it was common sense. The conspiracy was Tony Fauci and his assistants doing Xi Jinping’s dirty work and lying about COVID’s origins. I’m thankful that the Department...
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Marginal RevolutionEconomics and public affairs blog covering research, policy, and current events.votes Against and says:
After correcting a fundamental error in Bayesian reasoning, the results presented in that paper imply larger likelihood for a single introduction, reducing the plausibility of the wet-market zoonosis account of Covid’s origins.
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Tyler CowenProfessor of Economics, George Mason University & author of Average is Overvotes Against and says:
After correcting a fundamental error in Bayesian reasoning, the results presented in that paper imply larger likelihood for a single introduction, reducing the plausibility of the wet-market zoonosis account of Covid’s origins.
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Simon Wain-HobsonVirologist and Biosafety Now contributorvotes Against and says:
Their dismissive tone is all the sadder in that they pushed the erroneous sentence that Two distinct genetic lineages of SARS-CoV-2 were identified in samples from early cases associated with the Huanan market which is 100% wrong.
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Matt RidleyBritish science writer and peervotes Against and says:
There’s a new theory in the Covid origin debate being pushed by some people, namely that the virus was probably created in America by Ralph Baric’s research group at the Chapel Hill campus of the University of North Carolina – and sent to China from ...
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Gabrielle M. EtzelWashington Examiner healthcare policy reporter.votes Against and says:
The debut lecture featured British journalist and former politician Matt Ridley, who supports the theory that the coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2, came from bat virus research conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China. He and others cont...
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Roger L. MartinBusiness strategist and writer whose essays critique technocracy and public-policy decision making.votes Against and says:
COVID 19 was an orgy of technocracy. Science supposedly said it wasn’t a lab leak – but it turned out that it was.
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Econ Journal WatchAcademic journal publishing scholarly comments, including 2026 work on Bayesian reasoning and COVID-19 originsvotes Against and says:
An influential article claimed that Bayesian analysis of the molecular phylogeny of early SARS-CoV-2 cases indicated that the likelihood that two successful introductions to humans had occurred was greater than the likelihood that just one had occurr...
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Jim HaslamAuthor of the Substack "Reverse Engineering the Origins of SARS-CoV-2".votes Against and says:
The Huanan market may have amplified early transmission, but the question is origin, not amplification. SAGO’s framing is a binary choice between Lineage A and Lineage B. This overlooks a third issue: the best-known ancestral strain.
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Flora GrahamSenior editor at Nature Briefingvotes Against and says:
Most peer-reviewed evidence suggests an animal origin of SARS-CoV-2, but doesn’t indicate when or where the spillover occurred.
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Roger MarshallU.S. senator and physicianvotes Against and says:
Right. Thank you, Chairman, and welcome, Dr. Bhattacharya. I’m glad to see you again. Let’s talk about gain-of-function research. To start with, I think it’s now very well established that covid was a result of gain-of-function research partially fun...
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Jay BhattacharyaDirector of the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH); physician and health economistvotes Against and says:
I believe — and I think a lot of scientists agree with me — that the best available evidence suggests that the pandemic was the result of a lab accident that happened in Wuhan, China.
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Eric WinsbergUniversity of South Florida philosopher of science writing on modeling, evidence, and COVID-19 origins.votes Against and says:
The authors of “The Huanan Seafood …” insist that that the data they have is representative. They deny, in other words, that there was “ascertainment” bias in collecting the cases.
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Entropy ChaseMedium writer on Bayesian arguments and COVID-19 originsvotes Against and says:
A coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan is more surprising given a natural zoonosis event than it is given a lab escape event. From a Bayesian standpoint, the outbreak location favors the lab escape scenario.
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Muriel BlaiveSocio-political historian of postwar and post-communist Central Europe; commentator writing on COVID origins and public accountability.votes Against and says:
If the pandemic was man-made, admitting it isn’t optional: it’s the first step toward preventing the next one – and toward restoring the trust between science, power, and the public.
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Roger Pielke Jr.Science-policy scholar and author of The Honest Broker writing on contested science and public policy.votes Against and says:
I do think it’s highly likely that COVID emerged from a research-related incident. It’s not the first we’ve seen.
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votes Against and says:
This picture would make the story in Kadlec’s report, a possible escape of a lab-developed SARS-CoV-2 into the human population, one of accidental infection.
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Robin RobinsonFormer U.S. health official and vaccine expert writing on COVID-19 origins and pandemic policyvotes Against and says:
By critically reviewing thousands of COVID-19 related published works, publicly available communications, and WHO and government reports through traditional medical, virological, and epidemiological, and forensic prisms, the study strongly supports t...
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Alex WashburneMathematical biologist who studies pathogen spillover and biosafety risks.votes Against and says:
I have high confidence that this risky research caused the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Gregory C. MayerStatModeling commenter critiquing COVID-19 origin evidencevotes Against and says:
If the lab were sited for its proximity to the viruses to be studied, then there’s nothing very surprising or evidentially salient for a virus to be found in its vicinity.
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Nick PattersonStatModeling commenter on furin-cleavage-site evidence and COVID-19 originsvotes Against and says:
What are the chances this is unconnected with the pandemic outbreak? Weissman attempted to quantify this but it is clear that the probability must be vanishingly small.
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NickStatModeling commenter favoring a lab-origin explanation for COVID-19votes Against and says:
In my view the answer here is so obvious that a formal analysis is not really necessary. There is basically no chance at all that this is a coincidence.
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The Bush School of Government & Public ServiceTexas A&M graduate public-policy school that publishes research and institutional analyses on national security and public service.votes Against and says:
Evidence suggests that the pandemic began due to a virus escaping a laboratory rather than natural spillover from infected animals.
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Scowcroft Institute of International AffairsTexas A&M Bush School institute focused on international affairs, biosecurity, and policy research.votes Against and says:
Evidence suggests that the pandemic began due to a virus escaping a laboratory rather than natural spillover from infected animals.
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Richard J. DanzigFormer U.S. secretary of the Navy and expert on biological weapons and national securityvotes Against and says:
Kadlec’s report strengthens the case not only for a lab leak, but also for the argument that Chinese officials were aware of the safety concerns at Wuhan.
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Andrew WeberFormer U.S. assistant secretary of defense and senior fellow focused on biosecurityvotes Against and says:
Kadlec’s report adds to the scientific and documentary evidence for an accidental release of the virus, and highlights the need for the U.S. and other countries to implement stringent safety measures and limit risky biological research.
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Judith MillerInvestigative journalist and City Journal contributing editorvotes Against and says:
A bioweapons expert likely to head the Trump administration’s top Pentagon post for countering weapons of mass destruction has charged in a new report that the Covid-19 pandemic was probably the result of a military-research-related accident in a Chi...
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WHO Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO)WHO advisory group of independent experts assessing the origins of emerging and re-emerging pathogensvotes Against and says:
While available data support that the HSM played a significant role in early transmission and amplification, it is not conclusive that the HSM was where the virus first spilled over into the human population, or if it occurred through upstream infect...
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WHO Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO)WHO advisory group on pathogen originsvotes Against and says:
While the HSM had an important role in the early stages of the outbreak; it is unknown whether it was the initial site of spillover or just a site of amplification.
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Jesse BloomEvolutionary biologist, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Centervotes Against and says:
I also demonstrate clear evidence of bias among the earliest available sequences, and explain why the root of the SARS-CoV-2 tree cannot be conclusively resolved with the current data.
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Kush DesaiWhite House spokesperson in the second Trump administrationvotes Against and says:
Multiple intelligence agency assessments have now substantiated that COVID-19 originated from a lab leak.
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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.U.S. politician and environmental lawyervotes Against and says:
The CIA, the FBI, the DOE, and the State Department have all agreed that NIH research almost certainly led to the pandemic, the COVID pandemic.
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Marty MakaryCommissioner of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), surgeon and public health researcher at Johns Hopkinsvotes Against and says:
So it's crazy to think that this entire nightmare was probably the result of some scientists messing with Mother Nature in a laboratory with technology exported from the United States that is inserting a furin cleavage site.
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votes Against and says:
COVID.gov, which previously contained information about testing, treatment and vaccination, now redirects to a website that reads, “Lab Leak: True Origins of COVID-19.”
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votes Against and says:
The White House completely remodeled its webpage on COVID-19 to reflect its stance that the virus originated from a lab in China.
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The White HouseExecutive office of U.S. presidentvotes Against and says:
A lab-related incident involving gain-of-function research is the most likely origin of COVID-19. Current government mechanisms for overseeing this dangerous gain-of-function research are incomplete, severely convoluted, and lack global applicability...
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New Jersey Alliance for Clinical and Translational ScienceRutgers-led clinical and translational science consortium that publishes health news and explainers.votes Against and says:
But U.S. intelligence agencies are more split on the origin of COVID-19, with the CIA in January saying it assessed that the coronavirus more likely emerged from a lab than from nature.
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Christine RouziouxFrench virologist and lead author of the French National Academy of Medicine report on SARS-CoV-2 originsvotes Against and says:
pas beaucoup d’arguments en faveur de l’émergence naturelle du virus SARS-CoV-2
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Jean-François DelfraissyFrench immunologist, academician, and president of France's National Consultative Ethics Committee; former president of France's COVID-19 Scientific Councilvotes Against and says:
97 % de l’Académie de médecine a voté quasi unanimement pour dire que nous pensons plutôt que le SARS-CoV-2 est issu d’une erreur de laboratoire et qu’il faut en tirer des leçons pour prendre des précautions à l’avenir
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DRASTICIndependent group investigating COVID-19 originsvotes Against and says:
It challenges the prevailing narrative that the Huanan market served as the origin of the virus, drawing attention to negative SARS-CoV-2 tests in animals, the absence of precursor sequences, the dominance of lineage B, and evidence of viral circulat...
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Billy BosticksonCoordinator at DRASTICvotes Against and says:
Furthermore, it challenges the prevailing narrative that the Huanan market served as the origin of the virus, drawing attention to negative SARS-CoV-2 tests in animals, the absence of precursor sequences, the dominance of lineage B, and evidence of v...
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The State Council Information Office of the People's Republic of ChinaChinese state information officevotes Against and says:
China has actively participated in global virus origins-tracing efforts with the greatest sincerity, as it firmly upholds that the truth does not lie in premature accusations but in meticulous data-based verification. Through systematic epidemiologic...
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Alex TabarrokEconomist at George Mason University and coauthor of the Marginal Revolution blogvotes Against and says:
A higher probability of a lab-leak should also reduce the probability of zoonotic origin but the latter is an already known risk and COVID doesn’t add much to our prior while the former is new and so the net probability is positive.
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votes Against and says:DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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André GoffinetBelgian neurobiologist and DRASTIC participant on COVID-19 origins.votes Against and says:
But how can you prove anything when you don't have access to the WIV laboratories? It's just highly suspicious.
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Yuri DeiginBiotech entrepreneur and DRASTIC cofounder focused on the lab-leak hypothesis.votes Against and says:
Today, Deigin is less assertive, focusing on the origin of Covid-19, which he believes is linked to a poorly controlled experiment.
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Zach HStatistical Modeling blog commenter on virology, Bayesian analysis, and COVID-19 originsvotes Against and says:
Instead of a Bayes factor of 0.25, we get a Bayes factor of 11.95 because one reasonable model (early cases predict locations of subsequent cases) is compared to an unreasonable model (everyone is infected by raccoon dogs).
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votes Against and says:
A formidable body of evidence and reason had emerged for a lab leak incident at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in the early going of the pandemic.
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Michael WeissmanCondensed-matter physicist, emeritus professor at the University of Illinois, who argues proximity ascertainment bias undermines the Huanan clustering inference.votes Against and says:
I showed that the latter theory at least gave the correct sign of the difference between the median distances from HSM to unlinked vs. to linked cases, while the Worobey model gave the wrong sign.
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Karoline LeavittWhite House press secretary in the second Trump administrationvotes Against and says:DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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Chris CillizzaPolitical journalist and Substack writer commenting on U.S. politics and the COVID-19 origins debate.votes Against and says:DelegateChoose a list of delegatesto vote as the majority of them.Unless you vote directly.
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votes Against and says:
Beijing rejected the CIA’s findings that COVID-19 was likely leaked from a Chinese research laboratory.
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votes Against and says:
The US spy agency has assessed that a research-related source is more probable than the virus having originated in nature.
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Mike TurnerU.S. representative from Ohio and former chairman of the House Intelligence Committeevotes Against and says:
This is a good turning point, because clearly this was not of natural origins.
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votes Against and says:
The Central Intelligence Agency switched its view to conclude that COVID-19 most likely originated from a Chinese lab leak.
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John RatcliffeCIA director, former DNIvotes Against and says:
I've been on record as you know in saying I think our intelligence, our science, and our common sense all really dictate that the origins of COVID was a leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
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Central Intelligence AgencyForeign intelligence service of the United States federal governmentvotes Against and says:
CIA assesses with low confidence that a research-related origin of the COVID-19 pandemic is more likely than a natural origin based on the available body of reporting.
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Hervé MorinLe Monde science journalist covering COVID-19 origins and public health.votes Against and says:
The market may not have been the point of origin, but it may have acted as an amplifier for the human cases that transited this busy place.
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Andrew T. LevinEconomist at Dartmouth College and NBER research associate.votes Against and says:
the odds of observing the spatiotemporal pattern of confirmed COVID-19 cases with no known link to the specific wholesale market where wildlife mammals were being sold […] These four conditional Bayes factors are estimated as 2.3:1, 20:1, 27:1, and 1...
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George GaoFormer director, Chinese Center for Disease Controlvotes Against and says:
It is very likely that there will not be a definite conclusion for the source of SARS-CoV-2. In collaboration with Jun Liu (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention) and others, we published an article in Nature which scientifically confirme...
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Marc EloitVeterinarian and virologist; former director general of the Institut Pasteur and researcher on emerging viruses.votes Against and says:
We are reduced to drawing up a list of the species present, without ever being able to demonstrate that the virus originated in one of these animals, or even that one of them amplified it.
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Rick ScottU.S. senator from Floridavotes Against and says:
We know that this is not only a critical theory, but the most likely cause of the pandemic.
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Ron JohnsonU.S. Senator from Wisconsinvotes Against and says:
The circumstantial evidence is strong that this was a man-made virus, and that it was probably leaked from the lab, probably at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
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Steven QuayPhysician-scientist; founder and former CEO of Atossa Therapeuticsvotes Against and says:
The virus was spreading in Wuhan in the early fall of 2019, two to four months before the first case in the Hunan Seafood Market. This is supported by fourteen observations or evidence. This should be sufficient to dismiss the Hunan Market as the sou...
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Alina ChanMolecular biologist, Broad Institute; co-author of "Viral"votes Against and says:
The hypothesis that Covid-19 came from an animal at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan is not supported by strong evidence.
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Ralph BaricCoronavirus virologist and former professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.votes Against and says:
Clearly, the market was a conduit for expansion. Is that where it started? I don't think so.
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JonathanRootclaim blog authorvotes Against and says:
The HSM early cluster is therefore negligible as evidence. Our analysis assigns it 2x.
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Dietrich StoyanGerman statistician specializing in spatial statistics, emeritus at TU Bergakademie Freiberg.votes Against and says:
scientifically, neither our statistical analysis nor that of Worobey et al. could reject or support either the natural origin or lab-leak theory.
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Doris Kothe.Freiberg University of Mining and Technologyvotes Against and says:
The statistics do not prove that the market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. The main statistical test used is nonsensical, according to Stoyan, and there are other flaws in the statistical reasoning. Stoyan and Chiu used th...
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Michael B. Weissman.University of Illinois physicistvotes Against and says:
A comparison of the distances to the Huanan Seafood Market of early Covid cases with known links to the market versus cases without known links shows results apparently incompatible with a location model lacking proximity ascertainment bias. The sign...
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James WoodInfectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Cambridge; co-director of Cambridge Infectious Diseasesvotes Against and says:
The work provides very strong evidence for wildlife stalls in the Hunan Seafood Market in Wuhan being a hotspot for the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic. The viruses that were detected in samples collected by Chinese workers from the market on or a...
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David BahryBiology researcher at Carleton University and author of an mBio commentary on SARS-CoV-2 origins.votes Against and says:
Worobey et al. argue that the clustering of early cases around HSM, and within HSM the clustering of positive environmental samples in the southwestern corner of the market near most wildlife stalls, indicate that SARS-CoV-2 spilled over at HSM. Yet ...
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Tong YigangDean of the College of Life Science and Technology at Beijing University of Chemical Technology; leader of the Chinese Animals and Environment team in the WHO–China SARS-CoV-2 origins study.votes Against and says:
All animal samples, about 400, tested negative for COVID-19. The three strains of virus isolated from more than 900 environmental samples were almost identical to the patients' virus sequence at that time, suggesting that these strains of virus likel...
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Qian ZhaohuiResearcher at the Institute of Pathogen Biology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, working on COVID-19 origins research.votes Against and says:
The data from the paper support the notion that Huanan market may have been just an amplifier of COVID-19 transmission, rather than the place where COVID-19 originated.
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W. Ian LipkinJohn Snow Professor of Epidemiology and director of the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia Universityvotes Against and says:
I don't think that I can conclude based on this paper that the origin is the seafood market. The only thing that I conclude from that paper is that it was a site for amplification.
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Sanjay GuptaNeurosurgeon and chief medical correspondent for CNN.votes Against and says:
First of all, I think that this new data is really interesting, but it's not conclusive.
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Robert RedfieldVirologist; former Director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)votes Against and says:
Based on my initial analysis of the data, I came to believe—and still believe today—that it indicates COVID-19 infections more likely were the result of an accidental lab leak than the result of a natural spillover event.
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Nicholas WadeScience writer; former New York Times science editorvotes Against and says:
Second, the early cases are clustered round the market not because that was their origin but because the Chinese authorities, believing they had a repeat of the SARS1 epidemic on their hands, made closeness to the market a criterion for recognizing v...
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Jamie F. MetzlFounder and chair, OneShared.Worldvotes Against and says:
By late January 2020, it was already clear that the Wuhan market was likely not where the pandemic began but rather a place where it spread rapidly.
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Roger FrutosVirologist and CIRAD researcher who has published on SARS-CoV-2 originsvotes Against and says:
Wuhan is the place where the disease was recognized, it is not necessarily the place where the contamination, or the first infection, took place.
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Thea Kølsen FischerDanish epidemiologist and member of the 2021 WHO international team investigating COVID-19 origins.votes Against and says:
We cannot exclude that there have been milder cases, and there might have been smaller epidemics that have gone under the radar.
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Vladimir DedkovVirologist and member of the WHO international team that investigated COVID-19 origins in Wuhan.votes Against and says:
There is no evidence that the virus originated there, but hypothetically, there are all conditions for the spread of the virus there.
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Peter Ben EmbarekWHO scientist, led 2021 Wuhan origins missionvotes Against and says:
We don’t know the exact role of the Huanan Markets. We know that there was spread among people who were and lived and worked and visited the Huanan Market throughout December. How it was introduced and spread within the market is still unknown.
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Liang WannianChinese epidemiologist; co-leader of the WHO-China COVID-19 origins studyvotes Against and says:
It is not possible on the basis of the current epidemiological information to determine how the SARS-CoV-2 was introduced into the Huanan Market.
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Peter ForsterResearcher in archaeogenetics and genetic history at the University of Cambridge.votes Against and says:
I was not surprised the fish market does not fully qualify as the source of the COVID-19 outbreak, citing The Lancet study.
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Jeremy RossmanVirologist and honorary senior lecturer at the University of Kent.votes Against and says:
Together, this paper and the existing data offer a convincing view that SARS-CoV-2 did not first emerge at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan in December 2019, but earlier in November, in some as yet unidentified location in the general area of Wuhan...
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Gao FuChinese virologist and CDC directorvotes Against and says:
At first, we assumed the seafood market might have the virus, but now the market is more like a victim. The novel coronavirus had existed long before,
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Filippa LentzosBiosecurity scholar at King's College London and writer on laboratory biosafety and pandemic originsvotes Against and says:
There is solid evidence based on genetic analysis from scientists in multiple countries that the COVID-19 pandemic resulted from a natural spillover event, with the coronavirus most likely jumping from bats to people, perhaps via an intermediate anim...
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Christian StevensMD/PhD student at Mount Sinai School of Medicine and viral-genomics researcher in the Benhur Lee Lab.votes Against and says:
This indicates that the virus must have already spread in humans before it reached the Huanan market, and therefore the market was not the original source.
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Richard H. EbrightMolecular biologist, Rutgers University; Board of Governors Professor of Chemistry and Chemical Biologyvotes Against and says:
There is sufficient evidence to conclude beyond reasonable doubt that SARS-CoV-2 entered humans through a research-related incident.
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Defense Intelligence AgencyU.S. military intelligence agencyvotes Against and says:
The molecular biology capabilities of WIV and the genome assessment are consistent with the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 was a lab-engineered virus that was part of a bank of chimeric viruses in Zhen-Li Shi's laboratory at WIV that escaped from contain...
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Linfa WangVirologist and professor at Duke-NUS Medical School specializing in bat-borne viruses and emerging infectious diseases.votes Against and says:
Without any doubt that market played an amplification role, but epidemiologically we knew there were cases in early December that had no link to the market, and never went to the market, earlier than the market amplification.
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