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Comment by Michael B. Weissman

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Physicist, Professor Emeritus at the University of Illinois
Although zoonotic origins have been more common historically, the start in Wuhan where the suspect lab work was concentrated left the two possibilities with comparable probabilities.
AI Verified source (Aug 31, 2023)
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified The quote is relevant because, in the source context, the author explicitly argues for using "robust Bayesian analysis" to evaluate COVID-19 origins, and this sentence is an example of that framework in action: it weighs a historical prior favoring zoonosis against Wuhan-specific evidence to reach comparable probabilities. That makes a stance on the complete statement substantially more likely and determinable. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
AI Verified Relevant: in source context, this sentence appears in a post subtitled "A robust Bayesian look at Covid origins," and the nearby text says "Our method will be robust Bayesian analysis." The quote itself balances historical base rates against Wuhan-specific evidence in comparative-probability terms, so it is part of the author's Bayesian framing of how to assess COVID-19 origins and makes a stance on the complete statement substantially more likely. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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AI Verified The quoted sentence appears verbatim in the supplied Substack post, whose page is titled An Inconvenient Probability, bylined Michael Weissman, and dated Aug. 31, 2023. The URL therefore contains the quote. The author line on the post omits the middle initial, but authoritative academic sources use the fuller name Michael B Weissman, and a scholarly citation links that full name to this same Substack URL, so the stored attribution is consistent. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
AI Verified Verified: the fetchable Substack post "An Inconvenient Probability" is by Michael Weissman, dated Aug. 31, 2023, and its introduction contains the exact sentence quoted verbatim. The page byline uses "Michael Weissman," and University of Illinois identifies the same scholar as Michael B Weissman, so the attribution is consistent. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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