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Comment by Michael B. Weissman

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Physicist, Professor Emeritus at the University of Illinois
Of course, P(no wildlife host|LL) =1. Thus based on the absence of any intermediate host samples expected for ZW our probabilities should be updated by a modest likelihood ratio of ~4, corresponding to: Logit _{2} = 1.4 ±0.6.
AI Verified source (Aug 31, 2023)
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Policy proposals and claims
Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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AI Verified Relevant: the source explicitly presents a robust Bayesian analysis of COVID origins, and this quote is a concrete likelihood-ratio update within that framework (updating LL vs. ZW based on missing wildlife-host evidence). That makes the author’s stance on using Bayesian analysis to assess the origins question substantially determinable. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability-v57)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
AI Verified Relevant: in source context, Weissman explicitly frames the piece as “A robust Bayesian look at Covid origins,” says “Our method will be robust Bayesian analysis,” and explains Bayes’ theorem as the procedure for updating the odds; the quoted passage is one specific likelihood-ratio update within that framework. That makes his stance on using Bayesian analysis for the COVID-origins question substantially determinable. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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AI Verified The quote is authentic. The Substack page at the supplied URL is titled "An Inconvenient Probability," credited to Michael Weissman, and dated Aug. 31, 2023; the page contains the exact quoted text across lines 200-202: "Of course, P(no wildlife host|LL) =1. Thus based on the absence of any intermediate host samples expected for ZW our probabilities should be updated by a modest likelihood ratio of ~4, corresponding to:" followed by "Logit _{2} = 1.4 ±0.6." This supports the attribution and date; "Michael B. Weissman" appears to be the same individual using a fuller formal name, so no correction is needed. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
AI Verified The quote is authentic: the Substack post "An Inconvenient Probability" is bylined "Michael Weissman," dated Aug. 31, 2023, and lines 200-202 contain the exact wording, including "Of course, P(no wildlife host|LL) =1" and "Logit _{2} = 1.4 ±0.6." The source URL therefore contains the quote. The Substack profile uses "Michael Weissman," and external academic/Illinois sources identify this same scholar as Michael B Weissman, so the stored attribution is consistent. ([michaelweissman.substack.com](https://michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-probability)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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