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Comment by Louis Daily

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Statistical Modeling blog commenter on Bayesian analysis and COVID-19 origins
I guess we are counting on you as a Bayesian expert to eventually come up with an opinion. I think your “composite hypothesis” criticism is very telling: a good way to stack the deck.
AI Verified (Feb 6, 2025)
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Louis Daily, comment on Andrew Gelman, "What do I think of this Bayesian analysis of the origins of covid?", Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, February 6, 2025.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
votes Against
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AI Verified Relevant: in the source post, Gelman says Bayesian inference may not be the right way to address COVID origins because the hypotheses are composite and the data/model choices can be stacked, and Louis Daily endorses that exact criticism as “very telling.” In the same comment he adds that virologists must weigh in and that one study is not enough, so the quote directly bears on whether Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the question and makes skepticism/opposition substantially more likely. ([statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/03/bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
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AI Verified The author is criticizing this Bayesian approach, not endorsing it: he says Gelman’s "composite hypothesis" point is "very telling" and "a good way to stack the deck," then adds that virologists and others who work with viruses "have to weigh in" because "you can’t reach a conclusion on one study." In the same source thread, Louis Daily also says the eventual answer has to come from "biology, not mathematics." That strongly implies opposition to Bayesian analysis as the right framework for settling the COVID-origins question. ([statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/03/bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago

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AI Verified The source URL contains a comment by Louis Daily dated February 6, 2025 (shown on-page as February 6, 2025 8:53 AM), and the quoted text appears there verbatim: “I guess we are counting on you as a Bayesian expert to eventually come up with an opinion. I think your ‘composite hypothesis’ criticism is very telling: a good way to stack the deck.” The stored author, date, source URL, and quote text are consistent with the page. ([statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/02/03/bayesian-analysis-of-origins-of-covid/)) · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 2h ago
replying to Louis Daily