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Comment by Nate Soares

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AI safety researcher; MIRI president
Waterfalls are one way of visualizing the odds form of Bayes' rule, which states that the prior odds times the likelihood ratio equals the posterior odds.
Disputed (Feb 8, 2026)
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So8res (Nate Soares) et al., editors of LessWrong’s “Waterfall diagrams and relative odds,” last updated February 8, 2026.
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Bayesian analysis is the right framework for settling the COVID-19 origins question
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Disputed The quoted sentence does appear verbatim on the LessWrong page at the submitted URL, and the page shows "last updated 8th Feb 2026." However, the page attributes the text to multiple editors—"Eliezer Yudkowsky, Khana Santamaria, So8res, Robert Eidschun, et al."—rather than to Nate Soares alone, so this platform cannot verify it as a single-author Nate Soares quote. · YouCongress gpt-5.4-2026-03-05 · 1h ago
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