The U.S. and China should establish Mutually Assured Compute Destruction

For (15)

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  Daniel Kokotajlo

  AI Futures Project founder

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  votes For and says:

  We think it’s still good to recommend what would actually be good, even if you think that your audience is probably not going to listen.

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  Eli Tyre

  Strategy Director at Palisade Research, briefing policymakers and the public on intelligence-explosion and AI loss-of-control risks.

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  votes For and says:

  Plan A is the single most thorough and thoughtful plan that I’m aware of for what the world should do as we approach Superintelligence. If we want to get through the singularity alive, this is my current best guess of the playbook we should be aiming...

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  Thomas Larsen

  AI Futures Project researcher writing on Plan A assumptions, AI governance, and AI safety strategy.

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  votes For and says:

  Finally, I’m also excited about scenarios for plans that are less desirable than Plan A which may be easier to implement.

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  Marius Hobbhahn

  CEO and co-founder of Apollo Research; AI safety researcher specializing in scheming and pre-deployment evaluations of frontier AI systems

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  votes For and says:

  When I read it for the first time my intuitive reaction was like “too many low probability things have to go right for this to work out” Which my brain somehow mapped to “therefore unrealistic” instead of the obvious “it’s a really hard problem and t...

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  Steven Adler

  AI safety researcher; Lawfare writer

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  votes For and says:

  Very grateful that the AI 2027 team has a plan for the global calamity that is superintelligence [that arrives fast and before we are ready]. It is by no means perfect, but I’d love to see critics lay out a stronger competing vision; seems pretty har...

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  Jeffrey Ladish

  Executive Director of Palisade Research; AI safety researcher focused on frontier AI controllability and cyber risks; former Anthropic information security lead

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  votes For and says:

  We’re in a pretty dire situation, but we can change course! I highly recommend checking out @DKokotajlo Plan A write-up & AI 2040 scenario.

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  Ryan Greenblatt

  Chief Scientist at Redwood Research; AI safety researcher; lead author of "Alignment faking in large language models"

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  votes For and says:

  Plan A seems like a good plan for handling powerful AI, or at least the best plan anyone’s written up. Many choices initially seem crazy, but are actually pretty carefully considered. Plan A isn’t likely to happen, but pushing for something like this...

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  Buck Shlegeris

  CEO of Redwood Research; AI safety researcher focused on AI control

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  votes For and says:

  I’m really excited this is out; I think it’s the best summary of the spectrum of possible plans for preventing catastrophe from AI.

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  Eli Lifland

  AI Futures Project researcher writing on AI capability scaling, controlled takeoff, and comparative AI governance plans.

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  votes For and says:

  Excited to finally publish AI 2040: Plan A, our plan for international coordination to get to a great AI future. We’ve put a lot of work into this and I hope that it sparks alternative plans that bring us closer to treating superintelligence with the...

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  Romeo Dean

  AI Futures Project researcher and author of the 2026 Plan A Verification Plan on enforceable international AI-development slowdowns.

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  votes For and says:

  Plan A is our vision of how we can make this go well if we rise to the occasion.

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  Vitalik Buterin

  Ethereum cofounder; technologist

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  votes For and says:

  The 2040 plan is already much more open source friendly (even mandating it! yay). It also includes “mutually assured compute destruction” ideas which (if they work) effectively give one of 2-5 actors the ability to trigger a global compute winter – a...

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  Vladyslav Podoliako

  Writer and publisher of Vlad's Newsletter, covering technology and business.

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  votes For and says:

  The escrow. My favorite clause. New Chinese datacenters get built in Canada. New American ones in Mongolia. If the deal collapses, each side destroys its own chips rather than let the rival seize them. The authors name it mutually assured compute des...

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  Scott Alexander

  Author and psychiatrist

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  votes For and says:

  Plan A feels like our best hope to do something actually good.

  AI Verified source (Jul 9, 2026)

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  AI Futures Project

  Nonprofit AI forecasting research group behind AI 2027 and Plan A; led by Daniel Kokotajlo.

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  votes For and says:

  Plan A is our positive vision for what should happen instead. In this scenario, humanity delays the development of superintelligence until 2040, makes all AI research public, allows dozens of companies globally to catch up to the frontier, and intent...

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  石部統久

  Japanese writer publishing analysis of AI and governance under the name mototchen.

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  votes For and says:

  The purpose is to mutually possess the ability to destroy, thereby dissuading withdrawal.

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Against (8)

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  Kyle Corbitt

  AI entrepreneur; former OpenPipe CEO, former Y Combinator Startup School lead, and former Google software engineer.

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  votes Against and says:

  The tech development seems ~plausible but the politics feel quite naive. Like I just can’t see Canadian voters letting China construct thousands of datacenters in 2030, no matter how good the economics are. Esp if the pitch is “we chose you since you...

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  Timothy B. Lee

  Technology journalist and writer of the Understanding AI newsletter.

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  votes Against and says:

  I struggle with what to say about the new AI 2040: Plan A website. It all seems so implausible to me that I’m not sure where to start. There’s an epistemic chasm between those who think superintelligence implies near-omnipotence and those (like me) w...

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  Maxwell Tabarrok

  Economics PhD candidate at Harvard Business School and writer on economics and progress studies.

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  votes Against and says:

  The best plan is still “pause and let us figure out what to do”? Any credibility this policy might have had has been overtaken by events. What could we possibly have figured out about how to make Mythos safe if we had paused AI in 2023? So far, we’ve...

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  Ramez Naam

  Science author and futurist

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  votes Against and says:

  These proposals violate at minimum the spirit of the 1st and 4th Amendments. This is well intentioned, from people who sincerely believe that runaway AI is a greater risk than, say, China’s oppression of millions of people today, or the ideologies th...

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  Nate Soares

  AI safety researcher; MIRI president

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  votes Against and says:

  I doubt their Plan A would work as written, but it’d have a chance of producing evidence that convinced world leaders to switch to Plan S, which I think has a shot.

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  Tom Davidson

  AI governance researcher

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  votes Against and says:

  Even conditional on the political will for Plan A existing initially, I worry that the MACD equilibrium will be too fragile.

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  Richard Ngo

  AI researcher and writer on Bayesian epistemology and rationality

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  votes Against and says:

  I’ve been working with the AI Futures Project to critique and improve their AI 2040 scenario. Ultimately I still have serious disagreements with it. However, to their credit, the team asked me to write up my criticisms to be shared alongside the scen...

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  Zvi Mowshowitz

  Writer and commentator on artificial intelligence, technology, and public policy.

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  votes Against and says:

  I am not endorsing the vision, courses of action suggested here or the predictions made, but I am endorsing 1. the idea that this is well-written, carefully considered, and says what those writing it sincerely believe, and that 2. you should read it ...

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