AI Futures Project

We recommend an international deal between all major world powers to avoid a dangerous race to superintelligence.

Plan A is our positive vision for what should happen instead. In this scenario, humanity delays the development of superintelligence until 2040, makes all AI research public, allows dozens of companies globally to catch up to the frontier, and intent...

We recommend an international deal between all major world powers to avoid a dangerous race to superintelligence.

Between 2030 and 2035, we scale within the human range, to AIs that are roughly as capable as top human experts... In 2035, we pause at top-human-expert level AI in order to maintain human control. In 2040, we unpause and scale to superintelligence.

Smuggled chips make future agreements based on compute governance more difficult to enforce because it is hard for either the US or the Chinese government to trace smuggled chips.

We recommend an international deal to avoid a dangerous race to superintelligence.