AI Futures Project

However, we recommend against publicly releasing frontier model weights.

Plan A is not that crazy, but it’s close: the algorithms are mandated to be open source, and while the weights aren’t (in fact the weights are banned from being OS), access to the weights is mandated to be open; members of the public can do evaluatio...

We recommend an international deal between all major world powers to avoid a dangerous race to superintelligence.

Plan A is our positive vision for what should happen instead. In this scenario, humanity delays the development of superintelligence until 2040, makes all AI research public, allows dozens of companies globally to catch up to the frontier, and intent...

We recommend an international deal between all major world powers to avoid a dangerous race to superintelligence.

Between 2030 and 2035, we scale within the human range, to AIs that are roughly as capable as top human experts... In 2035, we pause at top-human-expert level AI in order to maintain human control. In 2040, we unpause and scale to superintelligence.

Smuggled chips make future agreements based on compute governance more difficult to enforce because it is hard for either the US or the Chinese government to trace smuggled chips.

The implementation takes different forms in different countries, but the eventual American version distributes the majority of compute and robot permit fees as a Citizen’s Dividend, distributed to all American adults.

We recommend an international deal to avoid a dangerous race to superintelligence.

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—defined as AI systems surpassing human performance across all cognitive tasks—will likely be developed within the next decade. While talk of AGI has become mainstream, very few people are acknowledging that soon ...

Permits to build robots or compute are sold to the highest bidder and can be freely traded.